LV @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LV Raiders
18
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LV38%18
NYJ62%21
21
NYJ Jets
BET VALUE
MARKET NYJ -1.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

LV
NYJ
38% Win Probability 62%
301 Total Yards 320
224 Passing Yards 203
77 Rushing Yards 117
1.8 Sacks 1.1
1.3 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins226 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty46 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tre Tucker5.5 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.3 rec, 47 yds, 0.4 TD
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith207 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Breece Hall80 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.2 rec, 60 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Omar Cooper Jr.2.7 rec, 35 yds

Jets by 3.3

Across 50 simulations, Jets come out on top 62% of the time by an average of 3.3 (21-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: Breece Hall, 5.6 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
In the Trenches
  • The Jets get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (2.6 sacks a game), led by David Bailey (2.1 sacks, 3.1 pressures a game).
  • The Raiders get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (3.5 sacks a game), led by Maxx Crosby (2.6 sacks, 6.2 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Jets will live and die with Garrett Wilson, who comes open 49% of the time (41 yds a game).
  • The Raiders' aerial attack runs through Tre Tucker (45 yds a game, open on 46% of routes).
  • D'Angelo Ponds (Jets) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 41% of routes — and 0.4 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Breece Hall sets the tempo for the Jets — 80 yds a game on the ground at 5.6 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • Expect a steady diet of Ashton Jeanty: 46 yds a game at 3.5 a carry for the Raiders, doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNYJ -3.3
Market lineNYJ -1.5
Sim total38
Market total41.5
NYJ by 3.3 (62% to win) Projected total 38 pts Kirk Cousins ~226 pass yds (250+ 32%) Breece Hall ~80 rush yds (70+ 62%) Tre Tucker ~66 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 48%)