LV @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LV Raiders
18
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LV36%18
NYJ64%23
23
NYJ Jets

Projected Team Stats

LV
NYJ
36% Win Probability 64%
283 Total Yards 346
226 Passing Yards 235
57 Rushing Yards 111
3.0 Sacks 1.8
1.4 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins237 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty33 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tre Tucker5.3 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.4 rec, 51 yds, 0.5 TD
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith243 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Breece Hall64 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Garrett Wilson6.5 rec, 86 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell3.1 rec, 48 yds, 0.2 TD

Jets by 5.2

The sim sides with Jets: a 5.2-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (23-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Jets) - winner: Jarvis Brownlee Jr., holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Garrett Wilson (Jets) vs Taron Johnson (Raiders) - winner: Garrett Wilson, open on 61% of routes for 8.0/10.0, 76 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Jets may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 3.5 sacks a game — Jowon Briggs (2.2 sacks, 0.4 pressures a game) out front.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Raiders — a 49% win rate, 5.2 sacks and 23.9 pressures a game (Maxx Crosby (3.4 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Jets' aerial attack runs through Garrett Wilson (76 yds a game, open on 61% of routes).
  • Tre Tucker is the go-to for the Raiders, separating on 47% of routes for 43 yds a game.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Brandon Stephens (Jets): 43% separation allowed, good for 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Breece Hall sets the tempo for the Jets — 64 yds a game on the ground at 4.4 a carry, finding room off right tackle.
  • The Raiders hand it to Ashton Jeanty early and often, 12 carries for 33 yds a game at 2.8 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

NYJ by 5.2 (64% to win) Projected total 41 pts Geno Smith ~243 pass yds (250+ 40%) Breece Hall ~64 rush yds (70+ 36%) Garrett Wilson ~86 rec yds, 6.5 rec (70+ 74%)