LV @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LV Raiders
19
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LV38%19
SF62%21
21
SF 49ers

Projected Team Stats

LV
SF
38% Win Probability 62%
321 Total Yards 348
238 Passing Yards 237
84 Rushing Yards 111
3.1 Sacks 1.3
1.5 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins242 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty46 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tre Tucker5.6 rec, 69 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.6 rec, 56 yds, 0.4 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy259 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey62 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Mike Evans4.7 rec, 71 yds, 0.5 TD
REC George Kittle3.2 rec, 45 yds, 0.3 TD

49ers by 1.2

The sim sides with 49ers: a 1.2-point edge and a 62% win rate over 50 runs (21-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Fred Warner, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Mike Evans (49ers) vs Taron Johnson (Raiders) - winner: Mike Evans, open on 63% of routes for 6.0/7.4, 62 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The 49ers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 2.9 sacks a game (Nick Bosa (2.2 sacks, 5.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The 49ers' line should hold up: the Raiders win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.8 sacks and 25.1 pressures a game — Maxx Crosby (3.5 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Mike Evans is the go-to for the 49ers, separating on 63% of routes for 62 yds a game.
  • Tre Tucker is the engine of the Raiders' passing game — 51 yds a game on 52% separation.
On the Ground
  • Christian McCaffrey carries the load for the 49ers, 15 carries for 62 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, with his best work to the right side.
  • Ashton Jeanty carries the load for the Raiders, 15 carries for 46 yds a game at 3.2 a carry, doing his damage to the right side with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

SF by 1.2 (62% to win) Projected total 40 pts Brock Purdy ~259 pass yds (250+ 60%) Christian McCaffrey ~62 rush yds (70+ 34%) Mike Evans ~71 rec yds, 4.7 rec (70+ 48%)