LV @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
LV Raiders
21
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
LV46%21
SF54%24
24
SF 49ers
BET VALUE
Lean LV +8.5 +5.6 pts
MARKET SF -8.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

LV
SF
46% Win Probability 54%
328 Total Yards 376
244 Passing Yards 251
84 Rushing Yards 125
2.7 Sacks 1.3
1.3 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

LV
PASS Kirk Cousins247 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty54 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.2 rec, 75 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.8 rec, 53 yds, 0.6 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy260 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey68 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Mike Evans4.5 rec, 61 yds, 0.3 TD
REC George Kittle4.3 rec, 48 yds, 0.7 TD

49ers by 2.9

The sim sides with 49ers: a 2.9-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (24-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Nick Bosa (49ers) vs DJ Glaze (Raiders) - winner: Nick Bosa, winning 57% of reps for 1.7 sacks and 2.7 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • The 49ers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (3.0 sacks a game), with Nick Bosa (1.7 sacks, 2.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Raiders get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.5 sacks a game), with Maxx Crosby (3.2 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Mike Evans should find soft spots all day, open 42% of the time for 45 yds a game.
  • The Raiders lean on Tre Tucker, good for 6.5 catches and 48 yds a game while breaking open on 44% of his routes.
  • Fred Warner (49ers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 38% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the 49ers ride Christian McCaffrey: 16 carries, 68 yds a game (4.4 a carry), finding room to the right side.
  • The Raiders hand it to Ashton Jeanty early and often, 14 carries for 54 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSF -2.9
Market lineSF -8.5
Sim total45
Market total46.5
SF by 2.9 (54% to win) Projected total 45 pts Brock Purdy ~260 pass yds (250+ 60%) Christian McCaffrey ~68 rush yds (70+ 40%) Tre Tucker ~75 rec yds, 6.2 rec (70+ 54%)