MIA @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
MIA Dolphins
30
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIA70%30
BUF30%25
25
BUF Bills
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take MIA +11.5 +16.3 pts
MARKET BUF -11.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

MIA
BUF
70% Win Probability 30%
412 Total Yards 370
246 Passing Yards 243
166 Rushing Yards 127
2.2 Sacks 2.7
0.9 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis251 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane125 rush yds, 1.6 TD
REC Malik Washington4.7 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jalen Tolbert3.2 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen252 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH James Cook62 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC DJ Moore6.1 rec, 87 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid3.2 rec, 43 yds, 0.5 TD

Dolphins by 4.8

Dolphins are the pick here, favoured by 4.8 and winning 70% of 50 sims (projected 30-25).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: De'Von Achane, 9.6 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Phidarian Mathis (Bills) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Phidarian Mathis, winning 57% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 3.2 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • The Dolphins get stonewalled often up front, winning only 48% of reps (5.2 sacks a game), Chop Robinson (2.1 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Bills get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (5.0 sacks a game), with Greg Rousseau (2.4 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Malik Washington headlines the Dolphins' receiving corps — 3.8 catches for 40 yds a game on 42% separation.
  • Expect the Bills to feed DJ Moore: 8.2 catches for 73 yds a game, open 49% of the time.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Davison Igbinosun (Bills): 40% separation allowed, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Dolphins' run game leans on De'Von Achane — 13 carries, 125 yds a game (9.6 a carry), doing his damage to the right side and moving the chains.
  • The Bills lean on James Cook, 15 carries for 62 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineMIA -4.8
Market lineBUF -11.5
Sim total55
Market total47.5
MIA by 4.8 (70% to win) Projected total 55 pts Josh Allen ~252 pass yds (250+ 46%) De'Von Achane ~125 rush yds (70+ 84%) DJ Moore ~87 rec yds, 6.1 rec (70+ 62%)