MIA @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
MIA Dolphins
11
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
MIA16%11
DEN84%23
23
DEN Broncos

Projected Team Stats

MIA
DEN
16% Win Probability 84%
264 Total Yards 353
169 Passing Yards 222
95 Rushing Yards 131
2.4 Sacks 3.5
1.7 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis195 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II50 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Caleb Douglas3.5 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Washington3.8 rec, 47 yds, 0.1 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix226 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins65 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.0 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.5 rec, 47 yds, 0.4 TD

Broncos by 12.1

The sim sides with Broncos: a 12.1-point edge and a 84% win rate over 50 runs (23-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Zach Allen (Broncos) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Zach Allen, winning 57% of reps for 0.6 sacks and 6.6 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Broncos — a 52% win rate yields only 6.4 sacks and 31.8 pressures a game, with Jonah Elliss (2.2 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Broncos' line should hold up: the Dolphins win just 49% of their reps, mustering 4.6 sacks and 23.5 pressures a game (Joshua Uche (2.6 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Jaylen Waddle should find soft spots all day, open 55% of the time for 55 yds a game.
  • Caleb Douglas headlines the Dolphins' receiving corps — 2.7 catches for 30 yds a game on 53% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos): 36% separation allowed with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • J.K. Dobbins sets the tempo for the Broncos — 65 yds a game on the ground at 5.1 a carry, finding room off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • Ollie Gordon II sets the tempo for the Dolphins — 50 yds a game on the ground at 4.1 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

DEN by 12.1 (84% to win) Projected total 35 pts Bo Nix ~226 pass yds (250+ 40%) J.K. Dobbins ~65 rush yds (70+ 44%) Jaylen Waddle ~80 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 58%)