MIA @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
MIA Dolphins
20
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIA34%20
DEN66%26
26
DEN Broncos
BET VALUE
MARKET DEN -9.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

MIA
DEN
34% Win Probability 66%
313 Total Yards 386
187 Passing Yards 265
126 Rushing Yards 121
2.1 Sacks 3.5
1.1 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis209 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane89 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Malik Washington5.0 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jalen Tolbert2.9 rec, 36 yds, 0.1 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix267 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins59 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle5.1 rec, 75 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Courtland Sutton5.0 rec, 69 yds, 0.3 TD

Broncos by 6.6

Run it 50 times and Broncos win 66% of them, by 6.6 on average (26-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 25 yds on just 32% open, 1.0 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Talanoa Hufanga (Broncos) - winner: De'Von Achane, 6.0 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Willie Gay (Dolphins) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.4 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Malcolm Roach (Broncos) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Malcolm Roach, winning 58% of reps for 0.7 sacks and 8.0 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Jalen Tolbert (Dolphins) vs Pat Surtain II (Broncos) - winner: Pat Surtain II, holding him to 16 yds on just 33% open, 0.5 INT a game, - shut down all game.
In the Trenches
  • The Broncos get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (6.7 sacks a game), Jonathon Cooper (2.1 sacks, 9.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Dolphins — a 48% win rate, 4.0 sacks and 16.8 pressures a game (Joshua Uche (2.3 sacks, 4.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Broncos' aerial attack runs through Jaylen Waddle (59 yds a game, open on 65% of routes).
  • Malik Washington should find soft spots all day, open 32% of the time for 25 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos), who yields separation on 31% of routes with 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Broncos' run game leans on J.K. Dobbins — 11 carries, 59 yds a game (5.4 a carry), finding room off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • On the ground, the Dolphins ride De'Von Achane: 15 carries, 89 yds a game (6.0 a carry), doing his damage to the right side and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -6.6
Market lineDEN -9.5
Sim total46
Market total42.5
DEN by 6.6 (66% to win) Projected total 46 pts Bo Nix ~267 pass yds (250+ 58%) De'Von Achane ~89 rush yds (70+ 68%) Jaylen Waddle ~75 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 48%)