MIA @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
MIA Dolphins
12
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
MIA6%12
GB94%27
27
GB Packers

Projected Team Stats

MIA
GB
6% Win Probability 94%
260 Total Yards 354
167 Passing Yards 291
94 Rushing Yards 63
1.7 Sacks 3.6
1.7 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis194 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Malik Washington3.8 rec, 46 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Caleb Douglas3.3 rec, 45 yds, 0.1 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love276 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH MarShawn Lloyd24 rush yds
REC Christian Watson6.2 rec, 103 yds, 0.9 TD
REC Matthew Golden4.5 rec, 73 yds, 0.6 TD

Packers by 15.3

The model leans Packers by 15.3, winning 94% of 50 sims (projected 27-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Willie Gay (Dolphins) - winner: Willie Gay, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Jonathan Ford (Packers) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Jonathan Ford, winning 56% of reps for 0.4 sacks and 6.1 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Christian Watson (Packers) vs JuJu Brents (Dolphins) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 62% of routes for 8.1/10.1, 86 yds a game - separation all day.
  • Matthew Golden (Packers) vs Chris Johnson (Dolphins) - winner: Matthew Golden, open on 63% of routes for 5.0/6.6, 52 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Packers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (6.5 sacks a game), Lukas Van Ness (2.9 sacks, 5.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Dolphins may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.3 sacks a game (Joshua Uche (2.7 sacks, 4.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Christian Watson is the go-to for the Packers, separating on 62% of routes for 86 yds a game.
  • Caleb Douglas is the go-to for the Dolphins, separating on 54% of routes for 25 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past Javon Bullard (Packers), who yields separation on 42% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Packers hand it to MarShawn Lloyd early and often, 9 carries for 24 yds a game at 2.5 a carry with tough sledding.
  • The Dolphins hand it to Ollie Gordon II early and often, 14 carries for 52 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

GB by 15.3 (94% to win) Projected total 39 pts Jordan Love ~276 pass yds (250+ 66%) Ollie Gordon II ~52 rush yds (70+ 16%) Christian Watson ~103 rec yds, 6.2 rec (70+ 70%)