MIA @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
MIA Dolphins
17
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIA34%17
GB66%24
24
GB Packers
BET VALUE
MARKET GB -10.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

MIA
GB
34% Win Probability 66%
289 Total Yards 360
170 Passing Yards 268
119 Rushing Yards 92
1.6 Sacks 3.8
1.1 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis198 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane82 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Malik Washington4.3 rec, 46 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Greg Dulcich3.0 rec, 35 yds, 0.3 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love269 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs57 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Christian Watson5.3 rec, 85 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tucker Kraft3.9 rec, 47 yds, 0.4 TD

Packers by 7.2

Packers are the pick here, favoured by 7.2 and winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 24-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Austin Jackson (Dolphins) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 56% of reps for 4.6 sacks and 10.0 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Xavier McKinney (Packers) - winner: De'Von Achane, 5.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Keisean Nixon (Packers) - winner: Keisean Nixon, holding him to 27 yds on just 37% open, 0.6 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Javon Hargrave (Packers) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Javon Hargrave, winning 58% of reps for 0.4 sacks and 8.0 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Jalen Tolbert (Dolphins) vs Carrington Valentine (Packers) - winner: Carrington Valentine, holding him to 21 yds on just 38% open, 0.3 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
In the Trenches
  • The Packers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (7.0 sacks a game), with Micah Parsons (4.6 sacks, 10.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Dolphins — a 51% win rate, 3.3 sacks and 16.9 pressures a game — Joshua Uche (1.4 sacks, 4.4 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Packers lean on Christian Watson, good for 7.3 catches and 82 yds a game while breaking open on 61% of his routes.
  • Expect the Dolphins to feed Malik Washington: 3.6 catches for 27 yds a game, open 37% of the time.
  • On the back end, Xavier McKinney (Packers) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 30% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Josh Jacobs is the workhorse for the Packers, churning 57 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.
  • De'Von Achane carries the load for the Dolphins, 14 carries for 82 yds a game at 5.9 a carry, with his best work to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -7.2
Market lineGB -10.5
Sim total41
Market total45.5
GB by 7.2 (66% to win) Projected total 41 pts Jordan Love ~269 pass yds (250+ 62%) De'Von Achane ~82 rush yds (70+ 62%) Christian Watson ~85 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 60%)