MIA @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 10 slate
MIA Dolphins
20
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIA28%20
IND72%27
27
IND Colts
BET VALUE
MARKET IND -6.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

MIA
IND
28% Win Probability 72%
289 Total Yards 386
177 Passing Yards 260
112 Rushing Yards 126
1.6 Sacks 3.0
0.7 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis194 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane77 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Malik Washington3.8 rec, 42 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Jalen Tolbert2.6 rec, 34 yds, 0.3 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones251 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor74 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.5 rec, 87 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Josh Downs4.4 rec, 57 yds, 0.4 TD

Colts by 6.6

The sim sides with Colts: a 6.6-point edge and a 72% win rate over 50 runs (27-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Sauce Gardner (Colts) - winner: Sauce Gardner, holding him to 22 yds on just 31% open, 0.9 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Camryn Bynum (Colts) - winner: De'Von Achane, 6.0 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Willie Gay (Dolphins) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.2 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Jalen Tolbert (Dolphins) vs Charvarius Ward (Colts) - winner: Charvarius Ward, holding him to 16 yds on just 34% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Adetomiwa Adebawore (Colts) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Adetomiwa Adebawore, winning 58% of reps for 0.5 sacks and 6.6 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Colts — a 51% win rate yields only 5.7 sacks and 30.2 pressures a game, led by Laiatu Latu (3.0 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game).
  • The Dolphins may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 3.2 sacks a game (Joshua Uche (1.9 sacks, 4.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Alec Pierce is the go-to for the Colts, separating on 60% of routes for 72 yds a game.
  • Through the air it is Malik Washington's show for the Dolphins: 22 yds a game, open on 31% of routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Sauce Gardner (Colts): 30% separation allowed, good for 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Colts' run game leans on Jonathan Taylor — 14 carries, 74 yds a game (5.2 a carry), doing his damage to the right side and moving the chains.
  • On the ground, the Dolphins ride De'Von Achane: 13 carries, 77 yds a game (6.0 a carry), doing his damage off the right edge and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -6.6
Market lineIND -6.5
Sim total47
Market total47.5
IND by 6.6 (72% to win) Projected total 47 pts Daniel Jones ~251 pass yds (250+ 56%) De'Von Achane ~77 rush yds (70+ 48%) Alec Pierce ~87 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 62%)