MIA @ LV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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MIA Dolphins
24
PROJECTION
Week 1 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIA54%24
LV46%21
21
LV Raiders
BET VALUE
Lean MIA +3.5 +5.6 pts
MARKET LV -3.5 · O/U 40.5

Projected Team Stats

MIA
LV
54% Win Probability 46%
334 Total Yards 347
199 Passing Yards 261
135 Rushing Yards 86
1.1 Sacks 2.4
0.9 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis209 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane93 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Malik Washington4.0 rec, 51 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Greg Dulcich3.1 rec, 37 yds, 0.4 TD
LV
PASS Kirk Cousins263 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty48 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tre Tucker5.7 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.8 rec, 57 yds, 0.5 TD

Dolphins by 2.1

Run it 50 times and Dolphins win 54% of them, by 2.1 on average (24-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: De'Von Achane, 7.4 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Eric Stokes (Raiders) - winner: Eric Stokes, holding him to 29 yds on just 35% open, 0.8 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
In the Trenches
  • The Raiders' line should hold up: the Dolphins win just 50% of their reps, mustering 2.7 sacks and 5.3 pressures a game (Joshua Uche (1.7 sacks, 2.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Raiders — a 50% win rate, 5.0 sacks and 24.4 pressures a game, and Maxx Crosby (2.9 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Dolphins will live and die with Malik Washington, who comes open 35% of the time (29 yds a game).
  • Tre Tucker is the engine of the Raiders' passing game — 55 yds a game on 49% separation.
  • Few balls get past Eric Stokes (Raiders), who yields separation on 32% of routes — and 0.8 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Dolphins lean on De'Von Achane, 13 carries for 93 yds a game at 7.4 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.
  • Ashton Jeanty sets the tempo for the Raiders — 48 yds a game on the ground at 3.5 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineMIA -2.1
Market lineLV -3.5
Sim total45
Market total40.5
MIA by 2.1 (54% to win) Projected total 45 pts Kirk Cousins ~263 pass yds (250+ 52%) De'Von Achane ~93 rush yds (70+ 60%) Tre Tucker ~71 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 50%)