MIA @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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MIA Dolphins
23
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIA64%23
MIN36%20
20
MIN Vikings
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take MIA +7.5 +11.1 pts
MARKET MIN -7.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

MIA
MIN
64% Win Probability 36%
319 Total Yards 305
196 Passing Yards 217
124 Rushing Yards 87
2.4 Sacks 2.3
1.0 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis208 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane90 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC Malik Washington4.3 rec, 53 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jalen Tolbert3.1 rec, 39 yds, 0.3 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray227 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones38 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.6 rec, 61 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jauan Jennings4.5 rec, 57 yds, 0.2 TD

Dolphins by 3.6

The sim sides with Dolphins: a 3.6-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (23-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Josh Metellus (Vikings) - winner: De'Von Achane, 7.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 29 yds on just 37% open, 0.7 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Domonique Orange (Vikings) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Domonique Orange, winning 57% of reps for 0.1 sacks and 2.5 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
In the Trenches
  • The Dolphins may have to manufacture pressure, winning 48% up front for 4.2 sacks a game — Chop Robinson (1.5 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Vikings get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.8 sacks a game), with Dallas Turner (2.3 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Malik Washington is the engine of the Dolphins' passing game — 29 yds a game on 37% separation.
  • Justin Jefferson headlines the Vikings' receiving corps — 5.9 catches for 53 yds a game on 56% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings): 32% separation allowed — and 0.4 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of De'Von Achane: 90 yds a game at 7.3 a carry for the Dolphins, finding room off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Vikings ride Aaron Jones: 11 carries, 38 yds a game (3.3 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineMIA -3.6
Market lineMIN -7.5
Sim total43
Market total43.5
MIA by 3.6 (64% to win) Projected total 43 pts Kyler Murray ~227 pass yds (250+ 38%) De'Von Achane ~90 rush yds (70+ 60%) Justin Jefferson ~61 rec yds, 4.6 rec (70+ 34%)