MIA @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 18 slate
MIA Dolphins
20
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIA46%20
NE54%24
24
NE Patriots
BET VALUE
Lean MIA +10.5 +6.5 pts
MARKET NE -10.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

MIA
NE
46% Win Probability 54%
294 Total Yards 381
188 Passing Yards 248
106 Rushing Yards 133
2.9 Sacks 3.2
0.8 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis210 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane68 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Malik Washington4.6 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jalen Tolbert3.1 rec, 36 yds, 0.2 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye255 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson61 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC A.J. Brown5.6 rec, 81 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Hunter Henry3.5 rec, 46 yds, 0.4 TD

Patriots by 4.0

Run it 50 times and Patriots win 54% of them, by 4.0 on average (24-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 27 yds on just 31% open, 1.2 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Joshua Uche (Dolphins) vs James Hudson III (Patriots) - winner: Joshua Uche, winning 56% of reps for 2.9 sacks and 6.9 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 62% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 8.7 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Jalen Tolbert (Dolphins) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 14 yds on just 30% open, 0.6 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Willie Gay (Dolphins) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 5.2 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
In the Trenches
  • The Dolphins' line should hold up: the Patriots win just 53% of their reps, mustering 6.3 sacks and 38.3 pressures a game (Dre'Mont Jones (2.4 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Dolphins get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (6.2 sacks a game), with Joshua Uche (2.9 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • A.J. Brown is the go-to for the Patriots, separating on 61% of routes for 71 yds a game.
  • The Dolphins lean on Malik Washington, good for 3.6 catches and 27 yds a game while breaking open on 31% of his routes.
  • Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 30% of routes, adding 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Rhamondre Stevenson is the workhorse for the Patriots, churning 61 yds a game at 5.2 a carry, finding room off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • De'Von Achane carries the load for the Dolphins, 14 carries for 68 yds a game at 4.9 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNE -4.0
Market lineNE -10.5
Sim total43
Market total42.5
NE by 4.0 (54% to win) Projected total 43 pts Drake Maye ~255 pass yds (250+ 58%) De'Von Achane ~68 rush yds (70+ 44%) A.J. Brown ~81 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 68%)