MIA @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
MIA Dolphins
12
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
MIA16%12
NE84%25
25
NE Patriots

Projected Team Stats

MIA
NE
16% Win Probability 84%
240 Total Yards 368
144 Passing Yards 237
97 Rushing Yards 130
2.7 Sacks 3.5
1.8 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis171 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II51 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Washington3.6 rec, 44 yds
REC Caleb Douglas3.1 rec, 41 yds, 0.2 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye230 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson53 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Romeo Doubs4.3 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Efton Chism III3.1 rec, 44 yds, 0.3 TD

Patriots by 13.5

The sim sides with Patriots: a 13.5-point edge and a 84% win rate over 50 runs (25-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 21 yds on just 39% open, 0.9 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 58% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 7.5 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Dolphins' quarterback should have time; the Patriots win just 53% of reps for 6.6 sacks a game, led by Dre'Mont Jones (2.5 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Dolphins — a 49% win rate, 5.4 sacks and 24.7 pressures a game, and Joshua Uche (3.2 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Romeo Doubs is the engine of the Patriots' passing game — 48 yds a game on 52% separation.
  • Malik Washington is the engine of the Dolphins' passing game — 21 yds a game on 39% separation.
  • Marcus Jones (Patriots) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 36% of routes with 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Rhamondre Stevenson: 53 yds a game at 4.3 a carry for the Patriots, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • The Dolphins lean on Ollie Gordon II, 13 carries for 51 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.

Model vs Market

NE by 13.5 (84% to win) Projected total 37 pts Drake Maye ~230 pass yds (250+ 40%) Rhamondre Stevenson ~53 rush yds (70+ 20%) Romeo Doubs ~67 rec yds, 4.3 rec (70+ 40%)