MIA @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 7 slate
MIA Dolphins
18
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIA32%18
NYJ68%24
24
NYJ Jets
BET VALUE
MARKET NYJ -2.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

MIA
NYJ
32% Win Probability 68%
287 Total Yards 332
180 Passing Yards 209
107 Rushing Yards 123
1.5 Sacks 3.0
0.8 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis198 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane76 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Malik Washington4.0 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Greg Dulcich2.9 rec, 34 yds, 0.2 TD
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith206 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Breece Hall84 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.2 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Omar Cooper Jr.2.6 rec, 33 yds, 0.1 TD

Jets by 5.5

Jets are the pick here, favoured by 5.5 and winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 24-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: Breece Hall, 5.8 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) - winner: De'Von Achane, 5.9 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • David Bailey (Jets) vs Patrick Paul (Dolphins) - winner: David Bailey, winning 55% of reps for 3.0 sacks and 7.6 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Nahshon Wright (Jets) - winner: Nahshon Wright, holding him to 29 yds on just 35% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • David Onyemata (Jets) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: David Onyemata, winning 56% of reps for 0.7 sacks and 5.6 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Jets — a 51% win rate, 6.2 sacks and 27.2 pressures a game (David Bailey (3.0 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Dolphins — a 50% win rate yields only 3.0 sacks and 13.7 pressures a game, led by Joshua Uche (1.4 sacks, 4.7 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Jets will live and die with Garrett Wilson, who comes open 56% of the time (50 yds a game).
  • The Dolphins will live and die with Malik Washington, who comes open 35% of the time (29 yds a game).
  • On the back end, D'Angelo Ponds (Jets) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 34% of routes, adding 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Breece Hall: 84 yds a game at 5.8 a carry for the Jets, finding room off right tackle.
  • De'Von Achane sets the tempo for the Dolphins — 76 yds a game on the ground at 5.9 a carry, churning off right tackle and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNYJ -5.5
Market lineNYJ -2.5
Sim total42
Market total41.5
NYJ by 5.5 (68% to win) Projected total 42 pts Geno Smith ~206 pass yds (250+ 20%) Breece Hall ~84 rush yds (70+ 66%) Garrett Wilson ~66 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 34%)