MIA @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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MIA Dolphins
19
PROJECTION
MIA 13 – SF 35
Week 2 50-sim average Sun 20 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
MIA34%19 13
SF66%23 35
23
SF 49ers
✓ RESULT SF by 22 model SF by 4.3, off by 17.7
✗ BEST BET MIA +13.5 LOSS line at publish SF -13.5
✗ TOTAL 48 pts OVER O/U 45.5, model 42 lean under

Projected Team Stats

MIA
SF
34% Win Probability 66%
311 Total Yards 355
194 Passing Yards 238
117 Rushing Yards 117
3.0 Sacks 3.4
0.9 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis217 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane82 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Caleb Douglas3.3 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Malik Washington3.8 rec, 45 yds
SF
PASS Brock Purdy247 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey66 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Mike Evans4.8 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Deebo Samuel3.5 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD

49ers by 4.3

The model leans 49ers by 4.3, winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 23-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: De'Von Achane, 6.1 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • CJ West (49ers) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: CJ West, winning 56% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 3.9 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the 49ers — a 51% win rate yields only 6.6 sacks and 29.7 pressures a game, Nick Bosa (3.7 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Dolphins may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 5.9 sacks a game (Joshua Uche (3.7 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Mike Evans is the go-to for the 49ers, separating on 55% of routes for 52 yds a game.
  • Expect the Dolphins to feed Caleb Douglas: 4.1 catches for 33 yds a game, open 65% of the time.
  • Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 42% of routes, good for 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the 49ers ride Christian McCaffrey: 15 carries, 66 yds a game (4.4 a carry), with the holes opening off the right edge.
  • The Dolphins hand it to De'Von Achane early and often, 13 carries for 82 yds a game at 6.1 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSF -4.3
Market lineSF -13.5
Sim total42
Market total45.5
SF by 4.3 (66% to win) Projected total 42 pts Brock Purdy ~247 pass yds (250+ 46%) De'Von Achane ~82 rush yds (70+ 56%) Mike Evans ~66 rec yds, 4.8 rec (70+ 38%)