MIA @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 2 slate
MIA Dolphins
23
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIA44%23
SF56%25
25
SF 49ers
BET VALUE
Lean MIA +10.5 +8.5 pts
MARKET SF -10.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

MIA
SF
44% Win Probability 56%
337 Total Yards 397
202 Passing Yards 275
135 Rushing Yards 122
2.1 Sacks 3.0
0.9 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis220 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane87 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Malik Washington4.5 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Greg Dulcich3.2 rec, 38 yds, 0.3 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy279 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey69 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Mike Evans5.3 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ricky Pearsall3.8 rec, 58 yds, 0.5 TD

49ers by 2.0

Run it 50 times and 49ers win 56% of them, by 2.0 on average (25-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: De'Von Achane, 6.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Deommodore Lenoir, holding him to 35 yds on just 39% open, 0.6 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • CJ West (49ers) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: CJ West, winning 59% of reps for 0.6 sacks and 6.6 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
In the Trenches
  • The Dolphins' line should hold up: the 49ers win just 53% of their reps, mustering 5.6 sacks and 29.1 pressures a game — Nick Bosa (2.2 sacks, 4.7 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Dolphins get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (4.5 sacks a game), with Chop Robinson (1.6 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Mike Evans is the engine of the 49ers' passing game — 59 yds a game on 55% separation.
  • The Dolphins' aerial attack runs through Malik Washington (35 yds a game, open on 39% of routes).
  • Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 37% of his coverage snaps with 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The 49ers' run game leans on Christian McCaffrey — 15 carries, 69 yds a game (4.5 a carry), finding room off the right edge.
  • On the ground, the Dolphins ride De'Von Achane: 13 carries, 87 yds a game (6.8 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSF -2.0
Market lineSF -10.5
Sim total49
Market total46.5
SF by 2.0 (56% to win) Projected total 49 pts Brock Purdy ~279 pass yds (250+ 64%) De'Von Achane ~87 rush yds (70+ 58%) Mike Evans ~80 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 52%)