MIN @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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MIN Vikings
17
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIN44%17
CHI56%20
20
CHI Bears
BET VALUE
MARKET CHI -3.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

MIN
CHI
44% Win Probability 56%
303 Total Yards 319
191 Passing Yards 211
112 Rushing Yards 108
2.8 Sacks 2.8
1.4 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray209 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones54 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson5.2 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jauan Jennings4.7 rec, 47 yds, 0.1 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams223 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift45 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.1 rec, 72 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.0 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD

Bears by 2.9

The model leans Bears by 2.9, winning 56% of 50 sims (projected 20-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • The Vikings' quarterback should have time; the Bears win just 50% of reps for 5.8 sacks a game, Montez Sweat (2.2 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Vikings — a 49% win rate, 5.5 sacks and 26.7 pressures a game (Dallas Turner (2.9 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Bears will live and die with Rome Odunze, who comes open 45% of the time (50 yds a game).
  • Expect the Vikings to feed Justin Jefferson: 5.7 catches for 47 yds a game, open 53% of the time.
  • Devin Bush (Bears) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 31% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bears lean on D'Andre Swift, 11 carries for 45 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, churning to the right side.
  • Aaron Jones is the workhorse for the Vikings, churning 54 yds a game at 4.1 a carry, churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCHI -2.9
Market lineCHI -3.5
Sim total38
Market total45.5
CHI by 2.9 (56% to win) Projected total 38 pts Caleb Williams ~223 pass yds (250+ 28%) Aaron Jones ~54 rush yds (70+ 24%) Rome Odunze ~72 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 50%)