MIN @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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MIN Vikings
17
PROJECTION
MIN 9 – CHI 3
Week 2 50-sim average Sun 20 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
MIN32%17 9
CHI68%25 3
25
CHI Bears
✗ RESULT MIN by 6 model CHI by 7.0, off by 13.0
✗ SPREAD CHI -5.5 LOSS line at publish CHI -5.5
✓ TOTAL 12 pts UNDER O/U 49.5, model 42 lean under

Projected Team Stats

MIN
CHI
32% Win Probability 68%
279 Total Yards 366
180 Passing Yards 237
99 Rushing Yards 129
2.9 Sacks 3.1
1.3 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray201 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones48 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson5.1 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jauan Jennings3.7 rec, 39 yds, 0.1 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams243 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift54 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.2 rec, 85 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.7 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD

Bears by 7.0

The model leans Bears by 7.0, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 25-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • The Vikings' quarterback should have time; the Bears win just 50% of reps for 6.1 sacks a game, Montez Sweat (3.4 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Vikings — a 49% win rate, 6.0 sacks and 27.0 pressures a game (Dallas Turner (2.9 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Bears will live and die with Rome Odunze, who comes open 47% of the time (60 yds a game).
  • Expect the Vikings to feed Justin Jefferson: 5.5 catches for 42 yds a game, open 56% of the time.
  • Devin Bush (Bears) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 32% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bears lean on D'Andre Swift, 12 carries for 54 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, churning to the right side.
  • Aaron Jones is the workhorse for the Vikings, churning 48 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCHI -7.0
Market lineCHI -5.5
Sim total42
Market total49.5
CHI by 7.0 (68% to win) Projected total 42 pts Caleb Williams ~243 pass yds (250+ 46%) D'Andre Swift ~54 rush yds (70+ 24%) Rome Odunze ~85 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 64%)