MIN @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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MIN Vikings
13
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIN14%13
DET86%23
23
DET Lions
BET VALUE
MARKET DET -4.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

MIN
DET
14% Win Probability 86%
271 Total Yards 342
194 Passing Yards 245
76 Rushing Yards 97
1.4 Sacks 2.8
1.3 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray215 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones36 rush yds
REC Justin Jefferson5.0 rec, 64 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jordan Addison3.3 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff242 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs67 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown5.7 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jameson Williams3.9 rec, 57 yds, 0.3 TD

Lions by 9.8

Across 50 simulations, Lions come out on top 86% of the time by an average of 9.8 (23-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Dallas Turner (Vikings) vs Blake Miller (Lions) - winner: Dallas Turner, winning 55% of reps for 2.5 sacks and 3.3 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs Terrion Arnold (Lions) - winner: Terrion Arnold, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Theo Jackson (Vikings) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 4.7 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • T.J. Hockenson (Vikings) vs Brian Branch (Lions) - winner: Brian Branch, holding him to 18 yds on just 40% open, 0.2 INT a game, - shut down all game.
In the Trenches
  • The Vikings' quarterback should have time; the Lions win just 50% of reps for 5.8 sacks a game, led by Aidan Hutchinson (3.9 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Vikings — a 50% win rate, 3.0 sacks and 7.1 pressures a game — Dallas Turner (2.5 sacks, 3.3 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Lions to feed Amon-Ra St. Brown: 7.5 catches for 60 yds a game, open 57% of the time.
  • Expect the Vikings to feed Justin Jefferson: 5.0 catches for 45 yds a game, open 55% of the time.
  • Brian Branch (Lions) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 34% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jahmyr Gibbs carries the load for the Lions, 14 carries for 67 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Expect a steady diet of Aaron Jones: 36 yds a game at 3.1 a carry for the Vikings, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -9.8
Market lineDET -4.5
Sim total36
Market total47.5
DET by 9.8 (86% to win) Projected total 36 pts Jared Goff ~242 pass yds (250+ 46%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~67 rush yds (70+ 44%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~66 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 44%)