MIN @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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MIN Vikings
19
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
MIN40%19
GB60%22
22
GB Packers

Projected Team Stats

MIN
GB
40% Win Probability 60%
284 Total Yards 327
190 Passing Yards 286
95 Rushing Yards 41
1.8 Sacks 2.4
1.4 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray206 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones53 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.8 rec, 63 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jauan Jennings3.5 rec, 37 yds, 0.3 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love292 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH MarShawn Lloyd13 rush yds
REC Christian Watson6.3 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Matthew Golden5.1 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD

Packers by 2.7

Run it 50 times and Packers win 60% of them, by 2.7 on average (22-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Byron Murphy Jr. (Vikings) - winner: Byron Murphy Jr., holding him to 1.4 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Dallas Turner (Vikings) vs Anthony Belton (Packers) - winner: Dallas Turner, winning 57% of reps for 3.1 sacks and 5.8 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • The Vikings' quarterback should have time; the Packers win just 50% of reps for 4.8 sacks a game, with Lukas Van Ness (1.8 sacks, 5.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Vikings — a 52% win rate, 3.8 sacks and 11.0 pressures a game (Dallas Turner (3.1 sacks, 5.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Packers to feed Christian Watson: 7.4 catches for 62 yds a game, open 48% of the time.
  • Expect the Vikings to feed Justin Jefferson: 5.7 catches for 50 yds a game, open 58% of the time.
  • Xavier McKinney (Packers) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 41% of routes, adding 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Packers hand it to MarShawn Lloyd early and often, 10 carries for 13 yds a game at 1.4 a carry with tough sledding.
  • Aaron Jones carries the load for the Vikings, 15 carries for 53 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

GB by 2.7 (60% to win) Projected total 41 pts Jordan Love ~292 pass yds (250+ 80%) Aaron Jones ~53 rush yds (70+ 22%) Christian Watson ~92 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 78%)