MIN @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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MIN Vikings
14
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIN12%14
GB88%23
23
GB Packers
BET VALUE
MARKET GB -4.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

MIN
GB
12% Win Probability 88%
269 Total Yards 316
184 Passing Yards 229
85 Rushing Yards 87
2.3 Sacks 3.8
1.4 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray212 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones39 rush yds
REC Justin Jefferson5.3 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jauan Jennings4.2 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love239 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs54 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Christian Watson5.2 rec, 85 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Tucker Kraft3.5 rec, 43 yds, 0.4 TD

Packers by 8.8

The sim sides with Packers: a 8.8-point edge and a 88% win rate over 50 runs (23-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • The Packers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (6.9 sacks a game), with Micah Parsons (4.7 sacks, 10.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Packers' line should hold up: the Vikings win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.9 sacks and 19.8 pressures a game — Dallas Turner (2.4 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Christian Watson's show for the Packers: 73 yds a game, open on 55% of routes.
  • The Vikings will live and die with Justin Jefferson, who comes open 53% of the time (49 yds a game).
  • Xavier McKinney (Packers) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 33% of routes, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Packers ride Josh Jacobs: 14 carries, 54 yds a game (3.8 a carry), doing his damage off right tackle.
  • Expect a steady diet of Aaron Jones: 39 yds a game at 3.4 a carry for the Vikings, with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -8.8
Market lineGB -4.5
Sim total38
Market total45.5
GB by 8.8 (88% to win) Projected total 38 pts Jordan Love ~239 pass yds (250+ 42%) Josh Jacobs ~54 rush yds (70+ 20%) Christian Watson ~85 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 62%)