MIN @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
MIN Vikings
17
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIN30%17
NE70%25
25
NE Patriots
BET VALUE
MARKET NE -4.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

MIN
NE
30% Win Probability 70%
272 Total Yards 342
180 Passing Yards 199
92 Rushing Yards 143
3.1 Sacks 3.5
1.2 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray205 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones43 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Justin Jefferson5.7 rec, 63 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jauan Jennings4.0 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye209 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson67 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC A.J. Brown4.5 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.0 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD

Patriots by 8.2

Across 50 simulations, Patriots come out on top 70% of the time by an average of 8.2 (25-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jauan Jennings (Vikings) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 20 yds on just 40% open, 0.7 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Theo Jackson (Vikings) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 5.5 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Jordan Addison (Vikings) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 14 yds on just 39% open, 0.4 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Will Fries (Vikings) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 56% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 5.9 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Patriots — a 51% win rate yields only 6.0 sacks and 33.2 pressures a game, with Dre'Mont Jones (2.4 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Vikings may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 5.8 sacks a game, and Dallas Turner (2.9 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • A.J. Brown should find soft spots all day, open 49% of the time for 54 yds a game.
  • Look for Justin Jefferson to eat: 5.5 catches and 38 yds a game for the Vikings.
  • Marcus Jones (Patriots) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 39% of routes with 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Rhamondre Stevenson sets the tempo for the Patriots — 67 yds a game on the ground at 5.5 a carry, finding room off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • Aaron Jones sets the tempo for the Vikings — 43 yds a game on the ground at 3.3 a carry, churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNE -8.2
Market lineNE -4.5
Sim total42
Market total43.5
NE by 8.2 (70% to win) Projected total 42 pts Drake Maye ~209 pass yds (250+ 22%) Rhamondre Stevenson ~67 rush yds (70+ 32%) A.J. Brown ~66 rec yds, 4.5 rec (70+ 38%)