MIN @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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MIN Vikings
21
PROJECTION
MIN 23 – NO 13
Week 5 50-sim average Sun 11 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
MIN62%21 23
NO38%19 13
19
NO Saints
✓ RESULT MIN by 10 model MIN by 2.6, off by 7.4
✓ SPREAD MIN -2 WIN line at publish MIN -2
✓ TOTAL 36 pts UNDER O/U 42, model 40 lean under

Projected Team Stats

MIN
NO
62% Win Probability 38%
314 Total Yards 319
224 Passing Yards 270
90 Rushing Yards 49
2.1 Sacks 2.8
0.9 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray234 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones48 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson5.4 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jordan Addison3.3 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough281 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Alvin Kamara20 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Chris Olave7.2 rec, 103 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Devaughn Vele3.7 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD

Vikings by 2.6

Vikings are the pick here, favoured by 2.6 and winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 21-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Dallas Turner (Vikings) vs Taliese Fuaga (Saints) - winner: Dallas Turner, winning 56% of reps for 2.8 sacks and 7.8 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Blake Cashman (Vikings) - winner: Blake Cashman, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Justin Jefferson (Vikings) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Justin Jefferson, open on 60% of routes for 6.0/8.7, 56 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Saints' quarterback should have time; the Vikings win just 49% of reps for 4.6 sacks a game, Dallas Turner (2.8 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Saints — a 49% win rate yields only 4.8 sacks and 24.8 pressures a game, Cameron Jordan (1.3 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Justin Jefferson is the engine of the Vikings' passing game — 56 yds a game on 60% separation.
  • Through the air it is Chris Olave's show for the Saints: 88 yds a game, open on 53% of routes.
  • Julian Blackmon (Saints) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 45% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Aaron Jones is the workhorse for the Vikings, churning 48 yds a game at 3.5 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • Alvin Kamara is the workhorse for the Saints, churning 20 yds a game at 2.2 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineMIN -2.6
Market lineMIN -2
Sim total40
Market total42
MIN by 2.6 (62% to win) Projected total 40 pts Tyler Shough ~281 pass yds (250+ 58%) Aaron Jones ~48 rush yds (70+ 12%) Chris Olave ~103 rec yds, 7.2 rec (70+ 70%)