MIN @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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MIN Vikings
19
PROJECTION
Week 5 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIN36%19
NO64%20
20
NO Saints
BET VALUE
MARKET MIN -1.5 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

MIN
NO
36% Win Probability 64%
280 Total Yards 322
198 Passing Yards 239
82 Rushing Yards 82
2.1 Sacks 3.3
1.0 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray220 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones40 rush yds
REC Justin Jefferson4.7 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jordan Addison3.5 rec, 49 yds, 0.3 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough248 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.48 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave6.7 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson4.8 rec, 59 yds, 0.1 TD

Saints by 0.9

Across 50 simulations, Saints come out on top 64% of the time by an average of 0.9 (20-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chase Young (Saints) vs Brian O'Neill (Vikings) - winner: Chase Young, winning 55% of reps for 3.9 sacks and 9.0 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Saints — a 51% win rate, 5.8 sacks and 26.6 pressures a game (Chase Young (3.9 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Saints' quarterback should have time; the Vikings win just 49% of reps for 3.9 sacks a game, Dallas Turner (2.4 sacks, 6.0 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Chris Olave is the go-to for the Saints, separating on 51% of routes for 77 yds a game.
  • Expect the Vikings to feed Justin Jefferson: 4.8 catches for 46 yds a game, open 51% of the time.
  • Few balls get past Julian Blackmon (Saints), who yields separation on 40% of routes, good for 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Travis Etienne Jr. sets the tempo for the Saints — 48 yds a game on the ground at 4.4 a carry, with his best work to the right side.
  • Aaron Jones sets the tempo for the Vikings — 40 yds a game on the ground at 3.4 a carry, with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNO -0.9
Market lineMIN -1.5
Sim total38
Market total44.5
NO by 0.9 (64% to win) Projected total 38 pts Tyler Shough ~248 pass yds (250+ 46%) Travis Etienne Jr. ~48 rush yds (70+ 12%) Chris Olave ~88 rec yds, 6.7 rec (70+ 72%)