MIN @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
MIN Vikings
16
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
MIN44%16
NYJ56%17
17
NYJ Jets

Projected Team Stats

MIN
NYJ
44% Win Probability 56%
226 Total Yards 285
170 Passing Yards 189
57 Rushing Yards 96
3.2 Sacks 2.4
0.9 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray183 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones28 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.2 rec, 54 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Jordan Addison3.2 rec, 44 yds
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith208 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Breece Hall56 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.5 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell2.8 rec, 38 yds, 0.2 TD

Jets by 0.4

The model leans Jets by 0.4, winning 56% of 50 sims (projected 17-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs Demario Davis (Jets) - winner: Demario Davis, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Jets — a 49% win rate, 4.5 sacks and 24.9 pressures a game (Kingsley Enagbare (1.1 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Jets' quarterback should have time; the Vikings win just 50% of reps for 5.7 sacks a game, led by Dallas Turner (3.2 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Jets lean on Garrett Wilson, good for 5.7 catches and 44 yds a game while breaking open on 44% of his routes.
  • The Vikings will live and die with Justin Jefferson, who comes open 58% of the time (42 yds a game).
  • On the back end, Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 38% of routes, good for 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jets' run game leans on Breece Hall — 14 carries, 56 yds a game (4.0 a carry), churning to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of Aaron Jones: 28 yds a game at 2.5 a carry for the Vikings.

Model vs Market

NYJ by 0.4 (56% to win) Projected total 33 pts Geno Smith ~208 pass yds (250+ 14%) Breece Hall ~56 rush yds (70+ 24%) Garrett Wilson ~62 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 30%)