MIN @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 17 slate
MIN Vikings
16
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIN40%16
NYJ60%19
19
NYJ Jets
BET VALUE
Lean NYJ +3.5 +6.4 pts
MARKET MIN -3.5 · O/U 40.5

Projected Team Stats

MIN
NYJ
40% Win Probability 60%
252 Total Yards 287
176 Passing Yards 181
76 Rushing Yards 107
2.0 Sacks 2.8
0.9 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray195 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones35 rush yds
REC Justin Jefferson4.7 rec, 54 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jauan Jennings3.9 rec, 45 yds, 0.1 TD
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith192 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Breece Hall70 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Garrett Wilson4.9 rec, 57 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell2.5 rec, 32 yds, 0.2 TD

Jets by 2.9

The sim sides with Jets: a 2.9-point edge and a 60% win rate over 50 runs (19-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Theo Jackson (Vikings) - winner: Breece Hall, 5.1 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) - winner: Minkah Fitzpatrick, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • The Vikings' quarterback should have time; the Jets win just 50% of reps for 4.7 sacks a game, with David Bailey (2.4 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Vikings may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 4.1 sacks a game (Dallas Turner (2.5 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Jets' aerial attack runs through Garrett Wilson (39 yds a game, open on 45% of routes).
  • The Vikings' aerial attack runs through Justin Jefferson (38 yds a game, open on 54% of routes).
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 31% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Breece Hall carries the load for the Jets, 14 carries for 70 yds a game at 5.1 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Expect a steady diet of Aaron Jones: 35 yds a game at 3.0 a carry for the Vikings, doing his damage off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNYJ -2.9
Market lineMIN -3.5
Sim total35
Market total40.5
NYJ by 2.9 (60% to win) Projected total 35 pts Kyler Murray ~195 pass yds (250+ 18%) Breece Hall ~70 rush yds (70+ 42%) Garrett Wilson ~57 rec yds, 4.9 rec (70+ 34%)