MIN @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
MIN Vikings
19
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIN42%19
SF58%23
23
SF 49ers
BET VALUE
MARKET SF -3.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

MIN
SF
42% Win Probability 58%
279 Total Yards 372
190 Passing Yards 255
90 Rushing Yards 116
2.9 Sacks 2.3
0.7 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray201 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones44 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.5 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jauan Jennings4.1 rec, 48 yds, 0.2 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy263 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey63 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Mike Evans5.0 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ricky Pearsall3.8 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD

49ers by 4.1

Across 50 simulations, 49ers come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 4.1 (23-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the 49ers — a 49% win rate yields only 4.2 sacks and 21.6 pressures a game, led by Nick Bosa (1.8 sacks, 4.8 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Vikings — a 50% win rate, 5.9 sacks and 29.1 pressures a game (Dallas Turner (2.9 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Mike Evans' show for the 49ers: 46 yds a game, open on 44% of routes.
  • Justin Jefferson is the go-to for the Vikings, separating on 57% of routes for 42 yds a game.
  • Fred Warner (49ers) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 32% of routes, adding 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The 49ers lean on Christian McCaffrey, 15 carries for 63 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.
  • Aaron Jones is the workhorse for the Vikings, churning 44 yds a game at 3.5 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSF -4.1
Market lineSF -3.5
Sim total41
Market total46.5
SF by 4.1 (58% to win) Projected total 41 pts Brock Purdy ~263 pass yds (250+ 50%) Christian McCaffrey ~63 rush yds (70+ 34%) Mike Evans ~69 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 44%)