MIN @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
MIN Vikings
20
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
MIN48%20
SF52%18
18
SF 49ers

Projected Team Stats

MIN
SF
48% Win Probability 52%
262 Total Yards 327
177 Passing Yards 231
85 Rushing Yards 96
2.8 Sacks 2.8
0.9 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray191 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones47 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.7 rec, 59 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jordan Addison2.7 rec, 37 yds, 0.1 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy253 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey56 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Mike Evans5.0 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Deebo Samuel3.4 rec, 38 yds, 0.2 TD

Vikings by 1.8

Run it 50 times and Vikings win 48% of them, by 1.8 on average (20-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • The Vikings get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.2 sacks a game), Dallas Turner (2.8 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Vikings' line should hold up: the 49ers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.4 sacks and 25.5 pressures a game — Nick Bosa (3.1 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Vikings will live and die with Justin Jefferson, who comes open 60% of the time (46 yds a game).
  • The 49ers lean on Mike Evans, good for 6.1 catches and 65 yds a game while breaking open on 48% of his routes.
  • Few balls get past Dre Greenlaw (49ers), who yields separation on 37% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Vikings lean on Aaron Jones, 13 carries for 47 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • Christian McCaffrey is the workhorse for the 49ers, churning 56 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

MIN by 1.8 (48% to win) Projected total 38 pts Brock Purdy ~253 pass yds (250+ 48%) Christian McCaffrey ~56 rush yds (70+ 22%) Mike Evans ~78 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 58%)