MIN @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 3 slate
MIN Vikings
18
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
MIN54%18
TB46%18
18
TB Buccaneers
BET VALUE
MARKET TB -1.5 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

MIN
TB
54% Win Probability 46%
274 Total Yards 298
189 Passing Yards 209
85 Rushing Yards 89
2.0 Sacks 3.1
0.9 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray207 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones39 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.7 rec, 60 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jauan Jennings3.9 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield218 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving35 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Chris Godwin5.0 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka3.0 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD

Buccaneers by 0.2

The model leans Buccaneers by 0.2, winning 46% of 50 sims (projected 18-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 39 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Byron Murphy Jr. (Vikings) - winner: Byron Murphy Jr., holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
In the Trenches
  • The Vikings' quarterback should have time; the Buccaneers win just 50% of reps for 5.0 sacks a game, with Elijah Roberts (1.4 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Vikings may have to manufacture pressure, winning 48% up front for 4.5 sacks a game — Dallas Turner (2.4 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Buccaneers to feed Chris Godwin: 5.2 catches for 39 yds a game, open 39% of the time.
  • Expect the Vikings to feed Justin Jefferson: 4.8 catches for 44 yds a game, open 54% of the time.
  • Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 37% of routes, adding 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Bucky Irving carries the load for the Buccaneers, 12 carries for 35 yds a game at 2.9 a carry, with his best work off right tackle with tough sledding.
  • The Vikings hand it to Aaron Jones early and often, 12 carries for 39 yds a game at 3.3 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineTB -0.2
Market lineTB -1.5
Sim total36
Market total44.5
TB by 0.2 (46% to win) Projected total 36 pts Baker Mayfield ~218 pass yds (250+ 24%) Chris Godwin ~66 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 42%)