NE @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 4 slate
NE Patriots
28
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NE64%28
BUF36%23
23
BUF Bills
BET VALUE
Lean NE +3 +8.5 pts
MARKET BUF -3 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

NE
BUF
64% Win Probability 36%
415 Total Yards 353
242 Passing Yards 204
173 Rushing Yards 149
3.7 Sacks 3.0
1.3 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye245 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson88 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC A.J. Brown4.8 rec, 70 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.3 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen223 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH James Cook67 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore6.4 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dawson Knox2.8 rec, 41 yds, 0.3 TD

Patriots by 5.5

Patriots are the pick here, favoured by 5.5 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 28-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 6.7 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • DJ Moore (Bills) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 49 yds on just 33% open, 1.1 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • A.J. Brown (Patriots) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: A.J. Brown, open on 60% of routes for 5.6/7.9, 57 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Patriots get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (7.6 sacks a game), with Dre'Mont Jones (2.7 sacks, 9.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bills — a 50% win rate yields only 5.9 sacks and 26.3 pressures a game, with Greg Rousseau (2.7 sacks, 9.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Patriots lean on A.J. Brown, good for 5.6 catches and 57 yds a game while breaking open on 60% of his routes.
  • The Bills' aerial attack runs through DJ Moore (49 yds a game, open on 33% of routes).
  • On the back end, Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 33% of routes — and 0.8 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Patriots hand it to Rhamondre Stevenson early and often, 13 carries for 88 yds a game at 6.7 a carry, with his best work to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • James Cook is the workhorse for the Bills, churning 67 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNE -5.5
Market lineBUF -3
Sim total51
Market total49.5
NE by 5.5 (64% to win) Projected total 51 pts Drake Maye ~245 pass yds (250+ 58%) Rhamondre Stevenson ~88 rush yds (70+ 60%) DJ Moore ~70 rec yds, 6.4 rec (70+ 48%)