NE @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 7 slate
NE Patriots
22
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NE52%22
CHI48%23
23
CHI Bears
BET VALUE
MARKET CHI -1.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

NE
CHI
52% Win Probability 48%
366 Total Yards 351
211 Passing Yards 209
156 Rushing Yards 142
3.6 Sacks 4.1
2.0 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye237 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson69 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC A.J. Brown5.1 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.6 rec, 47 yds, 0.3 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams228 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift65 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.1 rec, 70 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.8 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD

Bears by 0.4

Bears are the pick here, favoured by 0.4 and winning 48% of 50 sims (projected 23-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 45 yds on just 35% open, 1.0 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Devin Bush (Bears) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 5.2 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Bears — a 51% win rate, 8.0 sacks and 33.9 pressures a game (Montez Sweat (3.5 sacks, 10.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Patriots — a 50% win rate, 7.0 sacks and 39.1 pressures a game, and Dre'Mont Jones (2.9 sacks, 9.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Bears to feed Rome Odunze: 5.8 catches for 45 yds a game, open 35% of the time.
  • Look for A.J. Brown to eat: 6.6 catches and 52 yds a game for the Patriots.
  • Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 33% of routes — and 0.9 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • D'Andre Swift sets the tempo for the Bears — 65 yds a game on the ground at 4.1 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson sets the tempo for the Patriots — 69 yds a game on the ground at 5.2 a carry, finding room to the right side and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCHI -0.4
Market lineCHI -1.5
Sim total45
Market total47.5
CHI by 0.4 (48% to win) Projected total 45 pts Drake Maye ~237 pass yds (250+ 38%) Rhamondre Stevenson ~69 rush yds (70+ 44%) Rome Odunze ~70 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 48%)