NE @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NE Patriots
18
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NE34%18
DET66%23
23
DET Lions
BET VALUE
MARKET DET -1.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

NE
DET
34% Win Probability 66%
303 Total Yards 368
201 Passing Yards 240
103 Rushing Yards 129
1.9 Sacks 4.3
1.3 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye230 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson47 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC A.J. Brown4.7 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.0 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff243 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs89 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.2 rec, 68 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.0 rec, 47 yds, 0.3 TD

Lions by 5.5

Run it 50 times and Lions win 66% of them, by 5.5 on average (23-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs James Hudson III (Patriots) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 57% of reps for 5.0 sacks and 10.0 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Craig Woodson (Patriots) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Tate Ratledge (Lions) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 57% of reps for 2.9 sacks and 0.4 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 59% of routes for 9.0/10.9, 58 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • The Patriots' line should hold up: the Lions win just 50% of their reps, mustering 7.9 sacks and 28.5 pressures a game, and Aidan Hutchinson (5.0 sacks, 10.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Patriots may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 4.0 sacks a game, and Cory Durden (2.9 sacks, 0.4 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Lions to feed Amon-Ra St. Brown: 9.0 catches for 58 yds a game, open 59% of the time.
  • The Patriots' aerial attack runs through A.J. Brown (50 yds a game, open on 55% of routes).
  • In coverage, Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) travels and erases — only 32% separation allowed with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Jahmyr Gibbs: 89 yds a game at 5.3 a carry for the Lions, doing his damage off right tackle.
  • The Patriots hand it to Rhamondre Stevenson early and often, 12 carries for 47 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -5.5
Market lineDET -1.5
Sim total41
Market total48.5
DET by 5.5 (66% to win) Projected total 41 pts Jared Goff ~243 pass yds (250+ 42%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~89 rush yds (70+ 78%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~68 rec yds, 6.2 rec (70+ 38%)