NE @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NE Patriots
20
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NE48%20
JAX52%21
21
JAX Jaguars
BET VALUE
MARKET JAX -1.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

NE
JAX
48% Win Probability 52%
345 Total Yards 310
210 Passing Yards 206
135 Rushing Yards 104
3.2 Sacks 4.0
1.9 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye234 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson56 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC A.J. Brown5.7 rec, 78 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.5 rec, 46 yds, 0.1 TD
JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence223 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten39 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.4.1 rec, 54 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers3.8 rec, 41 yds, 0.2 TD

Jaguars by 1.1

The model leans Jaguars by 1.1, winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 21-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 33 yds on just 34% open, 0.9 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Patrick Mekari (Jaguars) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 56% of reps for 1.9 sacks and 5.4 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - running into a wall.
In the Trenches
  • The Patriots' quarterback should have time; the Jaguars win just 49% of reps for 8.3 sacks a game, led by Josh Hines-Allen (5.4 sacks, 11.4 pressures a game).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Patriots — a 51% win rate yields only 6.1 sacks and 31.4 pressures a game, led by Dre'Mont Jones (1.9 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Brian Thomas Jr. is the engine of the Jaguars' passing game — 33 yds a game on 34% separation.
  • The Patriots will live and die with A.J. Brown, who comes open 49% of the time (59 yds a game).
  • Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 31% of routes, adding 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jaguars hand it to Bhayshul Tuten early and often, 12 carries for 39 yds a game at 3.2 a carry with tough sledding.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson is the workhorse for the Patriots, churning 56 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -1.1
Market lineJAX -1.5
Sim total41
Market total45.5
JAX by 1.1 (52% to win) Projected total 41 pts Drake Maye ~234 pass yds (250+ 34%) Rhamondre Stevenson ~56 rush yds (70+ 24%) A.J. Brown ~78 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 50%)