NE @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 3 slate
NE Patriots
19
PROJECTION
NE 6 – JAX 35
Week 3 50-sim average Sun 27 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
NE38%19 6
JAX62%24 35
24
JAX Jaguars
✓ RESULT JAX by 29 model JAX by 4.9, off by 24.1
✓ SPREAD JAX -3 WIN line at publish JAX -3
✓ TOTAL 41 pts UNDER O/U 45, model 43 lean under

Projected Team Stats

NE
JAX
38% Win Probability 62%
292 Total Yards 361
184 Passing Yards 251
108 Rushing Yards 110
2.2 Sacks 3.8
1.6 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye209 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson50 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Romeo Doubs4.8 rec, 67 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Hunter Henry2.9 rec, 33 yds, 0.1 TD
JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence257 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten47 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Parker Washington5.3 rec, 84 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.3.8 rec, 55 yds, 0.3 TD

Jaguars by 4.9

Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 4.9 and winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 24-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 30 yds on just 39% open, 0.4 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 59% of routes for 7.0/8.8, 71 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • The Jaguars may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 6.8 sacks a game — Josh Hines-Allen (4.1 sacks, 9.6 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Jaguars' line should hold up: the Patriots win just 52% of their reps, mustering 5.0 sacks and 29.4 pressures a game (Elijah Ponder (1.5 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Jaguars lean on Parker Washington, good for 7.0 catches and 71 yds a game while breaking open on 59% of his routes.
  • Romeo Doubs should find soft spots all day, open 48% of the time for 40 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars), who yields separation on 36% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jaguars' run game leans on Bhayshul Tuten — 13 carries, 47 yds a game (3.7 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of Rhamondre Stevenson: 50 yds a game at 4.0 a carry for the Patriots, with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -4.9
Market lineJAX -3
Sim total43
Market total45
JAX by 4.9 (62% to win) Projected total 43 pts Trevor Lawrence ~257 pass yds (250+ 54%) Rhamondre Stevenson ~50 rush yds (70+ 20%) Parker Washington ~84 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 60%)