NE @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
NE Patriots
21
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NE50%21
LAC50%22
22
LAC Chargers
BET VALUE
MARKET LAC -2.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

NE
LAC
50% Win Probability 50%
356 Total Yards 341
231 Passing Yards 209
125 Rushing Yards 132
3.7 Sacks 3.6
1.6 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye251 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson55 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC A.J. Brown5.9 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.8 rec, 55 yds, 0.4 TD
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert227 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton59 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.4 rec, 59 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Quentin Johnston4.3 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD

Chargers by 0.9

The model leans Chargers by 0.9, winning 50% of 50 sims (projected 22-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Cole Strange (Chargers) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 58% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 8.2 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Quentin Johnston (Chargers) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 33 yds on just 38% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Craig Woodson (Patriots) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.1 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • The Patriots' quarterback should have time; the Chargers win just 49% of reps for 7.1 sacks a game, led by Tuli Tuipulotu (4.2 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game).
  • The Chargers' quarterback should have time; the Patriots win just 51% of reps for 6.6 sacks a game, with Dre'Mont Jones (2.1 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Ladd McConkey headlines the Chargers' receiving corps — 6.7 catches for 43 yds a game on 42% separation.
  • The Patriots will live and die with A.J. Brown, who comes open 52% of the time (60 yds a game).
  • Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 35% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Chargers hand it to Omarion Hampton early and often, 12 carries for 59 yds a game at 5.1 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson is the workhorse for the Patriots, churning 55 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLAC -0.9
Market lineLAC -2.5
Sim total43
Market total45.5
LAC by 0.9 (50% to win) Projected total 43 pts Drake Maye ~251 pass yds (250+ 54%) Omarion Hampton ~59 rush yds (70+ 30%) A.J. Brown ~78 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 54%)