NE @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NE Patriots
23
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NE54%23
MIA46%20
20
MIA Dolphins
BET VALUE
MARKET NE -7 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

NE
MIA
54% Win Probability 46%
374 Total Yards 323
246 Passing Yards 205
128 Rushing Yards 118
3.1 Sacks 2.9
1.3 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye255 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson59 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC A.J. Brown4.9 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.7 rec, 54 yds, 0.4 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis220 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane74 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Malik Washington4.8 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jalen Tolbert3.7 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD

Patriots by 2.8

Run it 50 times and Patriots win 54% of them, by 2.8 on average (23-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 31 yds on just 32% open, 1.0 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 61% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 8.9 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Jalen Tolbert (Dolphins) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 23 yds on just 33% open, 0.5 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Craig Woodson (Patriots) - winner: De'Von Achane, 5.0 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Willie Gay (Dolphins) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 5.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
In the Trenches
  • The Patriots may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 6.2 sacks a game (Dre'Mont Jones (2.5 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Patriots' quarterback should have time; the Dolphins win just 50% of reps for 6.3 sacks a game, Chop Robinson (2.6 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Patriots to feed A.J. Brown: 5.7 catches for 59 yds a game, open 58% of the time.
  • The Dolphins will live and die with Malik Washington, who comes open 32% of the time (31 yds a game).
  • Few balls get past Christian Gonzalez (Patriots), who yields separation on 30% of routes, good for 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Patriots lean on Rhamondre Stevenson, 11 carries for 59 yds a game at 5.3 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • The Dolphins' run game leans on De'Von Achane — 15 carries, 74 yds a game (5.0 a carry), with his best work off the right edge and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNE -2.8
Market lineNE -7
Sim total44
Market total45.5
NE by 2.8 (54% to win) Projected total 44 pts Drake Maye ~255 pass yds (250+ 46%) De'Von Achane ~74 rush yds (70+ 50%) A.J. Brown ~71 rec yds, 4.9 rec (70+ 46%)