NE @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 8 slate
NE Patriots
25
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NE84%25
MIA16%11
11
MIA Dolphins

Projected Team Stats

NE
MIA
84% Win Probability 16%
368 Total Yards 257
239 Passing Yards 163
129 Rushing Yards 93
3.0 Sacks 2.7
1.1 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye235 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson53 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Romeo Doubs4.5 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Efton Chism III3.5 rec, 54 yds, 0.5 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis185 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II51 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Washington4.0 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Caleb Douglas3.4 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD

Patriots by 13.3

Patriots are the pick here, favoured by 13.3 and winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 25-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 26 yds on just 39% open, 0.9 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 58% of reps for 0.7 sacks and 7.1 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Patriots — a 53% win rate yields only 5.3 sacks and 34.0 pressures a game, led by Dre'Mont Jones (2.1 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game).
  • The Dolphins may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.7 sacks a game — Joshua Uche (3.4 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Romeo Doubs is the engine of the Patriots' passing game — 46 yds a game on 54% separation.
  • Malik Washington should find soft spots all day, open 39% of the time for 26 yds a game.
  • Carlton Davis III (Patriots) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 36% of his coverage snaps with 1.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Rhamondre Stevenson: 53 yds a game at 4.5 a carry for the Patriots, churning off right tackle.
  • The Dolphins lean on Ollie Gordon II, 14 carries for 51 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

NE by 13.3 (84% to win) Projected total 36 pts Drake Maye ~235 pass yds (250+ 34%) Rhamondre Stevenson ~53 rush yds (70+ 10%) Romeo Doubs ~71 rec yds, 4.5 rec (70+ 40%)