NE @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 16 slate
NE Patriots
21
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NE54%21
NYJ46%21
21
NYJ Jets
BET VALUE
Lean NYJ +6.5 +5.9 pts
MARKET NE -6.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

NE
NYJ
54% Win Probability 46%
313 Total Yards 301
198 Passing Yards 191
115 Rushing Yards 111
2.5 Sacks 3.9
1.3 Turnovers 1.7

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye220 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson53 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC A.J. Brown4.6 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.0 rec, 45 yds, 0.1 TD
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith204 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Breece Hall71 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.7 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell2.6 rec, 30 yds, 0.2 TD

Patriots by 0.6

The sim sides with Patriots: a 0.6-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (21-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Garrett Wilson (Jets) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 37 yds on just 39% open, 1.2 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Adonai Mitchell (Jets) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 14 yds on just 35% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a read taken away.
In the Trenches
  • The Patriots may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 4.6 sacks a game (Dre'Mont Jones (1.2 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Jets — a 51% win rate, 7.3 sacks and 27.7 pressures a game — David Bailey (3.5 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • A.J. Brown headlines the Patriots' receiving corps — 5.5 catches for 48 yds a game on 56% separation.
  • Garrett Wilson is the go-to for the Jets, separating on 39% of routes for 37 yds a game.
  • Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 35% of his coverage snaps, good for 1.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Rhamondre Stevenson carries the load for the Patriots, 12 carries for 53 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • The Jets lean on Breece Hall, 16 carries for 71 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNE -0.6
Market lineNE -6.5
Sim total42
Market total41.5
NE by 0.6 (54% to win) Projected total 42 pts Drake Maye ~220 pass yds (250+ 30%) Breece Hall ~71 rush yds (70+ 50%) A.J. Brown ~69 rec yds, 4.6 rec (70+ 50%)