NE @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 1 slate
NE Patriots
21
PROJECTION
Week 1 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NE34%21
SEA66%25
25
SEA Seahawks
BET VALUE
MARKET SEA -4.5 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

NE
SEA
34% Win Probability 66%
355 Total Yards 361
221 Passing Yards 226
134 Rushing Yards 135
1.9 Sacks 3.3
1.3 Turnovers 2.0

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye236 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson65 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC A.J. Brown5.6 rec, 70 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.8 rec, 53 yds, 0.4 TD
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold230 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet79 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.6 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Cooper Kupp5.3 rec, 57 yds, 0.4 TD

Seahawks by 3.6

Run it 50 times and Seahawks win 66% of them, by 3.6 on average (25-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Cooper Kupp (Seahawks) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 35 yds on just 37% open, 0.7 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Anthony Bradford (Seahawks) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 60% of reps for 1.8 sacks and 3.9 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Seahawks — a 50% win rate, 6.5 sacks and 29.8 pressures a game, and Uchenna Nwosu (2.0 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Patriots — a 51% win rate, 4.0 sacks and 20.2 pressures a game, and Dre'Mont Jones (0.9 sacks, 6.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Seahawks will live and die with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who comes open 55% of the time (59 yds a game).
  • A.J. Brown is the engine of the Patriots' passing game — 46 yds a game on 43% separation.
  • Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 35% of his coverage snaps — and 0.7 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Seahawks' run game leans on Zach Charbonnet — 18 carries, 79 yds a game (4.4 a carry), finding room to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of Rhamondre Stevenson: 65 yds a game at 4.5 a carry for the Patriots, churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -3.6
Market lineSEA -4.5
Sim total46
Market total44.5
SEA by 3.6 (66% to win) Projected total 46 pts Drake Maye ~236 pass yds (250+ 36%) Zach Charbonnet ~79 rush yds (70+ 56%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~71 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 44%)