NO @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NO Saints
20
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NO10%20
ATL90%32
32
ATL Falcons

Projected Team Stats

NO
ATL
10% Win Probability 90%
349 Total Yards 414
300 Passing Yards 230
50 Rushing Yards 184
1.0 Sacks 2.3
1.5 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

NO
PASS Tyler Shough315 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Alvin Kamara21 rush yds
REC Chris Olave7.3 rec, 105 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Juwan Johnson5.0 rec, 60 yds, 0.6 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.211 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson125 rush yds, 1.5 TD
REC Drake London5.6 rec, 76 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jahan Dotson2.9 rec, 40 yds, 0.3 TD

Falcons by 11.5

The model leans Falcons by 11.5, winning 90% of 50 sims (projected 32-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Julian Blackmon (Saints) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 7.4 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Harold Perkins Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Harold Perkins Jr., holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Cameron Thomas (Falcons) vs Asim Richards (Saints) - winner: Cameron Thomas, winning 58% of reps for 1.6 sacks and 3.8 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Chris Olave (Saints) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 63% of routes for 9.0/11.9, 87 yds a game - separation all day.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Drake London, open on 64% of routes for 7.4/8.9, 68 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Falcons — a 51% win rate yields only 4.5 sacks and 17.3 pressures a game, with Samson Ebukam (0.7 sacks, 6.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Saints get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (2.2 sacks a game), led by Carl Granderson (0.4 sacks, 3.9 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Drake London's show for the Falcons: 68 yds a game, open on 64% of routes.
  • The Saints' aerial attack runs through Chris Olave (87 yds a game, open on 63% of routes).
  • Divine Deablo (Falcons) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 45% of his coverage snaps with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Bijan Robinson carries the load for the Falcons, 17 carries for 125 yds a game at 7.4 a carry, finding room off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Alvin Kamara carries the load for the Saints, 9 carries for 21 yds a game at 2.3 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

ATL by 11.5 (90% to win) Projected total 52 pts Tyler Shough ~315 pass yds (250+ 88%) Bijan Robinson ~125 rush yds (70+ 84%) Chris Olave ~105 rec yds, 7.3 rec (70+ 82%)