NO @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NO Saints
20
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NO36%20
ATL64%23
23
ATL Falcons
BET VALUE
MARKET ATL -1.5 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

NO
ATL
36% Win Probability 64%
334 Total Yards 357
266 Passing Yards 222
68 Rushing Yards 135
2.1 Sacks 1.6
1.4 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

NO
PASS Tyler Shough269 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.39 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Chris Olave7.1 rec, 95 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson5.3 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.230 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson88 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Drake London5.6 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.7 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD

Falcons by 3.0

Falcons are the pick here, favoured by 3.0 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 23-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Danny Stutsman (Saints) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.6 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Quincy Riley (Saints) - winner: Quincy Riley, holding him to 24 yds on just 38% open, 0.5 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Falcons — a 50% win rate, 3.0 sacks and 12.3 pressures a game (Jalon Walker (2.4 sacks, 5.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Falcons' line should hold up: the Saints win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.4 sacks and 19.5 pressures a game (Chase Young (3.3 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Falcons' aerial attack runs through Drake London (60 yds a game, open on 57% of routes).
  • The Saints lean on Chris Olave, good for 8.2 catches and 73 yds a game while breaking open on 57% of his routes.
  • In coverage, Divine Deablo (Falcons) travels and erases — only 35% separation allowed, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Falcons ride Bijan Robinson: 16 carries, 88 yds a game (5.6 a carry), with his best work to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. carries the load for the Saints, 10 carries for 39 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, finding room off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -3.0
Market lineATL -1.5
Sim total44
Market total44.5
ATL by 3.0 (64% to win) Projected total 44 pts Tyler Shough ~269 pass yds (250+ 60%) Bijan Robinson ~88 rush yds (70+ 60%) Chris Olave ~95 rec yds, 7.1 rec (70+ 68%)