NO @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NO Saints
17
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NO56%17
BLT44%18
18
BLT Ravens
BET VALUE
Lean NO +7.5 +7.4 pts
MARKET BLT -7.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

NO
BLT
56% Win Probability 44%
300 Total Yards 305
233 Passing Yards 172
67 Rushing Yards 133
3.0 Sacks 2.1
1.2 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

NO
PASS Tyler Shough240 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.39 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Olave6.8 rec, 89 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson4.9 rec, 59 yds, 0.3 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson191 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry78 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.0 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.5 rec, 33 yds, 0.2 TD

Ravens by 0.1

Ravens are the pick here, favoured by 0.1 and winning 44% of 50 sims (projected 18-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Julian Blackmon (Saints) - winner: Derrick Henry, 4.7 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Ravens — a 50% win rate yields only 3.8 sacks and 11.9 pressures a game, Trey Hendrickson (2.0 sacks, 3.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Ravens' quarterback should have time; the Saints win just 50% of reps for 5.6 sacks a game, with Chase Young (3.7 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Look for Zay Flowers to eat: 5.1 catches and 43 yds a game for the Ravens.
  • Chris Olave is the go-to for the Saints, separating on 52% of routes for 71 yds a game.
  • Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 32% of routes, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Ravens hand it to Derrick Henry early and often, 17 carries for 78 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. is the workhorse for the Saints, churning 39 yds a game at 3.7 a carry.

Model vs Market

Sim lineBLT -0.1
Market lineBLT -7.5
Sim total35
Market total46.5
BLT by 0.1 (44% to win) Projected total 35 pts Tyler Shough ~240 pass yds (250+ 46%) Derrick Henry ~78 rush yds (70+ 52%) Chris Olave ~89 rec yds, 6.8 rec (70+ 72%)