NO @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
NO Saints
19
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NO54%19
CAR46%19
19
CAR Panthers
BET VALUE
MARKET CAR -2.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

NO
CAR
54% Win Probability 46%
321 Total Yards 321
231 Passing Yards 214
89 Rushing Yards 107
1.9 Sacks 2.5
1.3 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

NO
PASS Tyler Shough246 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.52 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave7.0 rec, 88 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson4.8 rec, 56 yds, 0.2 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young222 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard55 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.0 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.0 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD

Saints by 0.4

Run it 50 times and Saints win 54% of them, by 0.4 on average (19-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Travis Etienne Jr. (Saints) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Travis Etienne Jr., 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
In the Trenches
  • The Panthers' line should hold up: the Saints win just 49% of their reps, mustering 4.5 sacks and 21.0 pressures a game, and Chase Young (3.2 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Panthers — a 50% win rate yields only 4.5 sacks and 15.0 pressures a game, led by Jaelan Phillips (3.4 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Saints will live and die with Chris Olave, who comes open 43% of the time (53 yds a game).
  • The Panthers will live and die with Tetairoa McMillan, who comes open 51% of the time (49 yds a game).
  • In coverage, Mike Jackson (Panthers) travels and erases — only 36% separation allowed, adding 0.8 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Saints lean on Travis Etienne Jr., 11 carries for 52 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of Chuba Hubbard: 55 yds a game at 3.7 a carry for the Panthers, finding room off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNO -0.4
Market lineCAR -2.5
Sim total38
Market total43.5
NO by 0.4 (54% to win) Projected total 38 pts Tyler Shough ~246 pass yds (250+ 44%) Chuba Hubbard ~55 rush yds (70+ 22%) Chris Olave ~88 rec yds, 7.0 rec (70+ 78%)