NO @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
NO Saints
20
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NO24%20
CAR76%27
27
CAR Panthers

Projected Team Stats

NO
CAR
24% Win Probability 76%
353 Total Yards 382
292 Passing Yards 303
61 Rushing Yards 79
2.1 Sacks 2.3
1.2 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

NO
PASS Tyler Shough308 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Alvin Kamara27 rush yds
REC Chris Olave8.3 rec, 118 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Devaughn Vele4.0 rec, 46 yds, 0.3 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young308 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard42 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan6.2 rec, 91 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Jalen Coker5.1 rec, 79 yds, 0.5 TD

Panthers by 6.4

Panthers are the pick here, favoured by 6.4 and winning 76% of 50 sims (projected 27-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Akayleb Evans (Panthers) - winner: Akayleb Evans, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Tetairoa McMillan, open on 61% of routes for 8.6/10.4, 83 yds a game - the edge through the air.
  • Chris Olave (Saints) vs Jaycee Horn (Panthers) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 59% of routes for 9.3/13.5, 89 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Jalen Coker (Panthers) vs Martin Emerson Jr. (Saints) - winner: Jalen Coker, open on 63% of routes for 6.1/7.1, 62 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Saints' line should hold up: the Panthers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.6 sacks and 19.0 pressures a game, and Jaelan Phillips (3.3 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Saints — a 50% win rate, 4.5 sacks and 23.1 pressures a game, and Carl Granderson (1.5 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Tetairoa McMillan's show for the Panthers: 83 yds a game, open on 61% of routes.
  • Look for Chris Olave to eat: 9.3 catches and 89 yds a game for the Saints.
  • Devin Lloyd (Panthers) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 36% of routes with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Panthers' run game leans on Chuba Hubbard — 12 carries, 42 yds a game (3.4 a carry), finding room to the right side.
  • The Saints' run game leans on Alvin Kamara — 10 carries, 27 yds a game (2.7 a carry) into a stout front.

Model vs Market

CAR by 6.4 (76% to win) Projected total 47 pts Bryce Young ~308 pass yds (250+ 76%) Chris Olave ~118 rec yds, 8.3 rec (70+ 92%)