NO @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
NO Saints
19
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NO42%19
CHI58%24
24
CHI Bears
BET VALUE
MARKET CHI -6.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

NO
CHI
42% Win Probability 58%
331 Total Yards 379
241 Passing Yards 260
90 Rushing Yards 119
2.9 Sacks 2.0
1.6 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

NO
PASS Tyler Shough250 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.47 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Olave7.0 rec, 92 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson4.4 rec, 51 yds, 0.3 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams265 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift55 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.7 rec, 87 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.8 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD

Bears by 4.8

Across 50 simulations, Bears come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 4.8 (24-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Bears — a 49% win rate, 4.0 sacks and 14.5 pressures a game, and Montez Sweat (1.0 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Saints may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 6.3 sacks a game (Chase Young (3.8 sacks, 10.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Bears lean on Rome Odunze, good for 6.7 catches and 61 yds a game while breaking open on 45% of his routes.
  • Chris Olave is the engine of the Saints' passing game — 73 yds a game on 55% separation.
  • Devin Bush (Bears) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 37% of his coverage snaps — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bears' run game leans on D'Andre Swift — 14 carries, 55 yds a game (4.0 a carry), doing his damage off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Saints ride Travis Etienne Jr.: 11 carries, 47 yds a game (4.2 a carry), with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCHI -4.8
Market lineCHI -6.5
Sim total43
Market total46.5
CHI by 4.8 (58% to win) Projected total 43 pts Caleb Williams ~265 pass yds (250+ 56%) D'Andre Swift ~55 rush yds (70+ 28%) Chris Olave ~92 rec yds, 7.0 rec (70+ 70%)