NO @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
NO Saints
19
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NO22%19
CIN78%28
28
CIN Bengals
BET VALUE
MARKET CIN -6.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

NO
CIN
22% Win Probability 78%
348 Total Yards 404
269 Passing Yards 330
80 Rushing Yards 74
2.9 Sacks 2.5
1.3 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

NO
PASS Tyler Shough286 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.45 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Olave7.2 rec, 96 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson5.5 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow326 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Chase Brown43 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase8.0 rec, 99 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.6 rec, 88 yds, 0.6 TD

Bengals by 8.7

Bengals are the pick here, favoured by 8.7 and winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 28-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chase Young (Saints) vs Amarius Mims (Bengals) - winner: Chase Young, winning 57% of reps for 4.3 sacks and 9.5 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
In the Trenches
  • The Saints' quarterback should have time; the Bengals win just 50% of reps for 4.4 sacks a game, Myles Murphy (1.0 sacks, 6.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Bengals' quarterback should have time; the Saints win just 50% of reps for 5.8 sacks a game, Chase Young (4.3 sacks, 9.5 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Ja'Marr Chase's show for the Bengals: 94 yds a game, open on 57% of routes.
  • Chris Olave headlines the Saints' receiving corps — 8.1 catches for 67 yds a game on 47% separation.
  • Few balls get past Bryan Cook (Bengals), who yields separation on 35% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bengals lean on Chase Brown, 11 carries for 43 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. sets the tempo for the Saints — 45 yds a game on the ground at 3.9 a carry, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -8.7
Market lineCIN -6.5
Sim total47
Market total48.5
CIN by 8.7 (78% to win) Projected total 47 pts Joe Burrow ~326 pass yds (250+ 94%) Ja'Marr Chase ~99 rec yds, 8.0 rec (70+ 78%)