NO @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 1 slate
NO Saints
16
PROJECTION
Week 1 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NO18%16
DET82%26
26
DET Lions
BET VALUE
MARKET DET -7 · O/U 49

Projected Team Stats

NO
DET
18% Win Probability 82%
302 Total Yards 398
239 Passing Yards 274
63 Rushing Yards 124
1.3 Sacks 2.4
1.4 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

NO
PASS Tyler Shough256 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.35 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Olave6.5 rec, 90 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson4.8 rec, 63 yds, 0.2 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff267 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs85 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.0 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.4 rec, 60 yds, 0.4 TD

Lions by 10.2

The sim sides with Lions: a 10.2-point edge and a 82% win rate over 50 runs (26-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Taliese Fuaga (Saints) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 57% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 7.5 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Danny Stutsman (Saints) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.5 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Martin Emerson Jr. (Saints) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 64% of routes for 8.6/10.0, 69 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Lions — a 50% win rate yields only 4.4 sacks and 14.2 pressures a game, Aidan Hutchinson (3.6 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Saints — a 51% win rate yields only 2.9 sacks and 7.3 pressures a game, with Chase Young (2.7 sacks, 3.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Look for Amon-Ra St. Brown to eat: 8.6 catches and 69 yds a game for the Lions.
  • The Saints lean on Chris Olave, good for 7.8 catches and 69 yds a game while breaking open on 57% of his routes.
  • On the back end, Brian Branch (Lions) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 41% of routes, adding 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Lions hand it to Jahmyr Gibbs early and often, 15 carries for 85 yds a game at 5.5 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. is the workhorse for the Saints, churning 35 yds a game at 3.6 a carry.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -10.2
Market lineDET -7
Sim total42
Market total49
DET by 10.2 (82% to win) Projected total 42 pts Jared Goff ~267 pass yds (250+ 58%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~85 rush yds (70+ 52%) Chris Olave ~90 rec yds, 6.5 rec (70+ 70%)