NO @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 15 slate
NO Saints
22
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NO62%22
TB38%19
19
TB Buccaneers
BET VALUE
Lean NO +3.5 +5.9 pts
MARKET TB -3.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

NO
TB
62% Win Probability 38%
340 Total Yards 325
262 Passing Yards 230
77 Rushing Yards 95
2.2 Sacks 1.8
1.1 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

NO
PASS Tyler Shough265 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.42 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave6.4 rec, 93 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson4.8 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield240 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving36 rush yds
REC Chris Godwin5.1 rec, 62 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka3.7 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD

Saints by 2.4

Saints are the pick here, favoured by 2.4 and winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 22-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Julian Blackmon (Saints) - winner: Julian Blackmon, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
In the Trenches
  • The Buccaneers' line should hold up: the Saints win just 49% of their reps, mustering 5.3 sacks and 24.5 pressures a game (Chase Young (3.4 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Buccaneers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (3.6 sacks a game), led by Yaya Diaby (1.6 sacks, 3.7 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Saints will live and die with Chris Olave, who comes open 57% of the time (79 yds a game).
  • Chris Godwin is the go-to for the Buccaneers, separating on 56% of routes for 45 yds a game.
  • In coverage, Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) travels and erases — only 41% separation allowed, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Saints hand it to Travis Etienne Jr. early and often, 10 carries for 42 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, finding room off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Buccaneers ride Bucky Irving: 13 carries, 36 yds a game (2.9 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNO -2.4
Market lineTB -3.5
Sim total41
Market total45.5
NO by 2.4 (62% to win) Projected total 41 pts Tyler Shough ~265 pass yds (250+ 56%) Chris Olave ~93 rec yds, 6.4 rec (70+ 66%)