NO @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NO Saints
21
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NO44%21
TB56%24
24
TB Buccaneers

Projected Team Stats

NO
TB
44% Win Probability 56%
343 Total Yards 345
290 Passing Yards 235
54 Rushing Yards 110
2.4 Sacks 2.1
1.3 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

NO
PASS Tyler Shough301 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Alvin Kamara23 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Olave7.6 rec, 117 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Devaughn Vele3.8 rec, 49 yds, 0.1 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield245 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving59 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka4.9 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.9 rec, 55 yds, 0.3 TD

Buccaneers by 3.0

The sim sides with Buccaneers: a 3.0-point edge and a 56% win rate over 50 runs (24-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Benjamin Morrison (Buccaneers) - winner: Benjamin Morrison, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Chris Olave (Saints) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 62% of routes for 9.4/12.6, 91 yds a game - separation all day.
  • Al-Quadin Muhammad (Buccaneers) vs Taliese Fuaga (Saints) - winner: Al-Quadin Muhammad, winning 55% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 2.9 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Buccaneers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.2 sacks a game), Yaya Diaby (1.3 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Saints get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (4.0 sacks a game), led by Carl Granderson (1.1 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Emeka Egbuka headlines the Buccaneers' receiving corps — 5.3 catches for 46 yds a game on 52% separation.
  • Expect the Saints to feed Chris Olave: 9.4 catches for 91 yds a game, open 62% of the time.
  • Julian Blackmon (Saints) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 42% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Buccaneers lean on Bucky Irving, 14 carries for 59 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • The Saints lean on Alvin Kamara, 10 carries for 23 yds a game at 2.4 a carry.

Model vs Market

TB by 3.0 (56% to win) Projected total 44 pts Tyler Shough ~301 pass yds (250+ 78%) Bucky Irving ~59 rush yds (70+ 26%) Chris Olave ~117 rec yds, 7.6 rec (70+ 86%)