NYG @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
NYG Giants
16
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYG16%16
DAL84%28
28
DAL Cowboys
BET VALUE
Lean DAL -4.5 +7.1 pts
MARKET DAL -4.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

NYG
DAL
16% Win Probability 84%
287 Total Yards 421
214 Passing Yards 292
73 Rushing Yards 129
3.3 Sacks 2.5
0.9 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

NYG
PASS Jaxson Dart233 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo40 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.7 rec, 91 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Darius Slayton2.7 rec, 36 yds, 0.2 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott288 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams67 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb6.1 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD
REC George Pickens5.5 rec, 81 yds, 0.6 TD

Cowboys by 11.6

Across 50 simulations, Cowboys come out on top 84% of the time by an average of 11.6 (28-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Ar'Darius Washington (Giants) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.4 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 55% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 4.1 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Jalen Thompson, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • George Pickens (Cowboys) vs Greg Newsome II (Giants) - winner: George Pickens, open on 66% of routes for 5.6/6.7, 59 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Paulson Adebo (Giants) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 62% of routes for 7.9/9.8, 76 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Cowboys get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (4.6 sacks a game), led by Rashan Gary (1.7 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Giants — a 51% win rate yields only 6.2 sacks and 22.8 pressures a game, led by Brian Burns (3.4 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Cowboys will live and die with CeeDee Lamb, who comes open 62% of the time (76 yds a game).
  • Look for Malik Nabers to eat: 5.6 catches and 58 yds a game for the Giants.
  • Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 37% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Javonte Williams sets the tempo for the Cowboys — 67 yds a game on the ground at 5.4 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • The Giants' run game leans on Cam Skattebo — 13 carries, 40 yds a game (3.2 a carry) into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDAL -11.6
Market lineDAL -4.5
Sim total44
Market total49.5
DAL by 11.6 (84% to win) Projected total 44 pts Dak Prescott ~288 pass yds (250+ 72%) Javonte Williams ~67 rush yds (70+ 42%) Malik Nabers ~91 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 66%)