NYG @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 16 slate
NYG Giants
14
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYG12%14
DET88%27
27
DET Lions
BET VALUE
Lean DET -5.5 +7.3 pts
MARKET DET -5.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

NYG
DET
12% Win Probability 88%
271 Total Yards 388
186 Passing Yards 274
85 Rushing Yards 114
1.6 Sacks 2.9
1.2 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

NYG
PASS Jaxson Dart208 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo46 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.7 rec, 81 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Darius Slayton2.5 rec, 31 yds, 0.1 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff261 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs74 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown5.6 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.0 rec, 60 yds, 0.5 TD

Lions by 12.8

Lions are the pick here, favoured by 12.8 and winning 88% of 50 sims (projected 27-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Ar'Darius Washington (Giants) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.4 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Deonte Banks (Giants) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 63% of routes for 8.0/9.3, 68 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Lions may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.7 sacks a game (Aidan Hutchinson (3.9 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Giants — a 50% win rate, 3.1 sacks and 6.4 pressures a game — Brian Burns (2.0 sacks, 2.9 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Lions lean on Amon-Ra St. Brown, good for 8.0 catches and 68 yds a game while breaking open on 63% of his routes.
  • Look for Malik Nabers to eat: 5.6 catches and 52 yds a game for the Giants.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Brian Branch (Lions): 36% separation allowed with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Lions lean on Jahmyr Gibbs, 14 carries for 74 yds a game at 5.4 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.
  • The Giants' run game leans on Cam Skattebo — 14 carries, 46 yds a game (3.4 a carry), with the holes opening off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -12.8
Market lineDET -5.5
Sim total41
Market total48.5
DET by 12.8 (88% to win) Projected total 41 pts Jared Goff ~261 pass yds (250+ 50%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~74 rush yds (70+ 56%) Malik Nabers ~81 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 58%)