NYG @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 16 slate
NYG Giants
16
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NYG6%16
DET94%34
34
DET Lions

Projected Team Stats

NYG
DET
6% Win Probability 94%
303 Total Yards 441
254 Passing Yards 303
49 Rushing Yards 138
1.7 Sacks 1.9
1.5 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

NYG
PASS Jameis Winston268 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo28 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.9 rec, 84 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Isaiah Likely4.1 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff271 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs87 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.6 rec, 95 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.0 rec, 60 yds, 0.4 TD

Lions by 17.9

The sim sides with Lions: a 17.9-point edge and a 94% win rate over 50 runs (34-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Roger McCreary (Lions) - winner: Roger McCreary, holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Jevon Holland (Giants) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.9 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Jermaine Eluemunor (Giants) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 56% of reps for 3.2 sacks and 6.2 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
In the Trenches
  • The Giants' quarterback should have time; the Lions win just 51% of reps for 3.9 sacks a game, Aidan Hutchinson (3.2 sacks, 6.2 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Lions' quarterback should have time; the Giants win just 49% of reps for 3.8 sacks a game, with Abdul Carter (2.7 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Lions' aerial attack runs through Amon-Ra St. Brown (85 yds a game, open on 55% of routes).
  • The Giants will live and die with Malik Nabers, who comes open 57% of the time (60 yds a game).
  • Brian Branch (Lions) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 44% of routes, adding 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jahmyr Gibbs carries the load for the Lions, 15 carries for 87 yds a game at 5.9 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Giants hand it to Cam Skattebo early and often, 14 carries for 28 yds a game at 2.0 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

DET by 17.9 (94% to win) Projected total 50 pts Jared Goff ~271 pass yds (250+ 68%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~87 rush yds (70+ 58%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~95 rec yds, 6.6 rec (70+ 74%)