NYG @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 7 slate
NYG Giants
13
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYG12%13
HST88%27
27
HST Texans
BET VALUE
Lean HST -5.5 +8.2 pts
MARKET HST -5.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

NYG
HST
12% Win Probability 88%
245 Total Yards 398
175 Passing Yards 274
70 Rushing Yards 123
1.9 Sacks 3.7
1.4 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

NYG
PASS Jaxson Dart201 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo41 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.2 rec, 71 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Darius Slayton2.8 rec, 37 yds, 0.1 TD
HST
PASS C.J. Stroud263 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH David Montgomery68 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Nico Collins5.6 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jayden Higgins3.6 rec, 53 yds, 0.4 TD

Texans by 13.7

Texans are the pick here, favoured by 13.7 and winning 88% of 50 sims (projected 27-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Darius Slayton (Giants) vs Derek Stingley Jr. (Texans) - winner: Derek Stingley Jr., holding him to 15 yds on just 37% open, 0.7 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jalen Pitre, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Nico Collins (Texans) vs Paulson Adebo (Giants) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 63% of routes for 7.7/9.6, 70 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Texans — a 51% win rate yields only 6.9 sacks and 31.2 pressures a game, with Will Anderson Jr. (3.5 sacks, 9.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Texans' quarterback should have time; the Giants win just 50% of reps for 4.6 sacks a game, led by Brian Burns (2.2 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Nico Collins to eat: 7.7 catches and 70 yds a game for the Texans.
  • The Giants lean on Malik Nabers, good for 4.8 catches and 41 yds a game while breaking open on 45% of his routes.
  • Few balls get past Jalen Pitre (Texans), who yields separation on 32% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Texans lean on David Montgomery, 15 carries for 68 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • Expect a steady diet of Cam Skattebo: 41 yds a game at 3.2 a carry for the Giants.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -13.7
Market lineHST -5.5
Sim total39
Market total43.5
HST by 13.7 (88% to win) Projected total 39 pts C.J. Stroud ~263 pass yds (250+ 58%) David Montgomery ~68 rush yds (70+ 40%) Nico Collins ~80 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 52%)