NYG @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
NYG Giants
15
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYG12%15
IND88%28
28
IND Colts
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take IND -2.5 +10.2 pts
MARKET IND -2.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

NYG
IND
12% Win Probability 88%
271 Total Yards 414
186 Passing Yards 267
85 Rushing Yards 147
1.4 Sacks 2.8
1.3 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

NYG
PASS Jaxson Dart206 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo44 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Malik Nabers4.7 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Darius Slayton2.8 rec, 34 yds, 0.1 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones251 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor93 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.5 rec, 92 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.9 rec, 57 yds, 0.4 TD

Colts by 12.7

Across 50 simulations, Colts come out on top 88% of the time by an average of 12.7 (28-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Ar'Darius Washington (Giants) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Darius Slayton (Giants) vs Charvarius Ward (Colts) - winner: Charvarius Ward, holding him to 17 yds on just 38% open, 0.5 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Alec Pierce (Colts) vs Paulson Adebo (Giants) - winner: Alec Pierce, open on 62% of routes for 7.2/9.1, 71 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Giants' quarterback should have time; the Colts win just 49% of reps for 5.4 sacks a game, with Laiatu Latu (2.9 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Colts' quarterback should have time; the Giants win just 50% of reps for 3.4 sacks a game, Brian Burns (1.6 sacks, 5.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Alec Pierce is the engine of the Colts' passing game — 71 yds a game on 62% separation.
  • Expect the Giants to feed Malik Nabers: 4.8 catches for 41 yds a game, open 46% of the time.
  • On the back end, Charvarius Ward (Colts) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 37% of routes, adding 0.5 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jonathan Taylor carries the load for the Colts, 15 carries for 93 yds a game at 6.2 a carry, with his best work to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Expect a steady diet of Cam Skattebo: 44 yds a game at 3.6 a carry for the Giants, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -12.7
Market lineIND -2.5
Sim total44
Market total47.5
IND by 12.7 (88% to win) Projected total 44 pts Daniel Jones ~251 pass yds (250+ 48%) Jonathan Taylor ~93 rush yds (70+ 68%) Alec Pierce ~92 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 70%)