NYG @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NYG Giants
11
PROJECTION
NYG 6 – LA 28
Week 2 50-sim average Mon 21 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
NYG4%11 6
LA96%36 28
36
LA Rams
✓ RESULT LA by 22 model LA by 24.4, off by 2.4
✓ BEST BET LA -6.5 WIN line at publish LA -6.5
• TOTAL 34 pts UNDER O/U 47.5, model 47

Projected Team Stats

NYG
LA
4% Win Probability 96%
208 Total Yards 490
165 Passing Yards 334
43 Rushing Yards 156
1.8 Sacks 2.6
1.5 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

NYG
PASS Jaxson Dart184 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo22 rush yds
REC Malik Nabers4.5 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Malachi Fields2.8 rec, 36 yds
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford295 pass yds, 2.5 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams81 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Puka Nacua8.2 rec, 110 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Davante Adams4.9 rec, 74 yds, 0.6 TD

Rams by 24.4

Across 50 simulations, Rams come out on top 96% of the time by an average of 24.4 (36-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 1.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Malachi Fields (Giants) vs Jaylen Watson (Rams) - winner: Jaylen Watson, holding him to 18 yds on just 38% open, 0.8 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Andru Phillips (Giants) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 64% of routes for 11.3/13.2, 103 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Micah McFadden (Giants) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.6 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Davante Adams (Rams) vs Greg Newsome II (Giants) - winner: Davante Adams, open on 65% of routes for 5.7/7.1, 53 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Rams — a 51% win rate yields only 4.7 sacks and 28.7 pressures a game, with Byron Young (1.8 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Rams' quarterback should have time; the Giants win just 50% of reps for 4.0 sacks a game, led by Brian Burns (2.8 sacks, 6.4 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Rams' aerial attack runs through Puka Nacua (103 yds a game, open on 64% of routes).
  • The Giants lean on Malik Nabers, good for 5.0 catches and 44 yds a game while breaking open on 45% of his routes.
  • Jaylen Watson (Rams) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 38% of routes, adding 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kyren Williams carries the load for the Rams, 17 carries for 81 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, with his best work to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Giants hand it to Cam Skattebo early and often, 13 carries for 22 yds a game at 1.7 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -24.4
Market lineLA -6.5
Sim total47
Market total47.5
LA by 24.4 (96% to win) Projected total 47 pts Matthew Stafford ~295 pass yds (250+ 76%) Kyren Williams ~81 rush yds (70+ 64%) Puka Nacua ~110 rec yds, 8.2 rec (70+ 88%)