NYG @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 2 slate
NYG Giants
13
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYG2%13
LA98%34
34
LA Rams
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take LA -8.5 +13.3 pts
MARKET LA -8.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

NYG
LA
2% Win Probability 98%
229 Total Yards 480
170 Passing Yards 323
59 Rushing Yards 157
2.2 Sacks 3.6
1.7 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

NYG
PASS Jaxson Dart197 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo33 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.1 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Darius Slayton2.6 rec, 32 yds, 0.1 TD
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford287 pass yds, 2.6 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams88 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.5 rec, 104 yds, 0.8 TD
REC Davante Adams5.2 rec, 77 yds, 0.7 TD

Rams by 21.8

Across 50 simulations, Rams come out on top 98% of the time by an average of 21.8 (34-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Ar'Darius Washington (Giants) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.4 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Darius Slayton (Giants) vs Jaylen Watson (Rams) - winner: Jaylen Watson, holding him to 13 yds on just 37% open, 0.7 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Kamren Curl (Rams) - winner: Kamren Curl, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Paulson Adebo (Giants) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 67% of routes for 10.5/11.8, 97 yds a game - separation all day.
  • Davante Adams (Rams) vs Greg Newsome II (Giants) - winner: Davante Adams, open on 65% of routes for 5.7/7.5, 53 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Rams — a 51% win rate yields only 6.8 sacks and 30.9 pressures a game, with Myles Garrett (3.9 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Rams' quarterback should have time; the Giants win just 51% of reps for 4.3 sacks a game, led by Brian Burns (2.4 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Rams' aerial attack runs through Puka Nacua (97 yds a game, open on 67% of routes).
  • The Giants lean on Malik Nabers, good for 5.1 catches and 44 yds a game while breaking open on 45% of his routes.
  • Kamren Kinchens (Rams) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 22% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kyren Williams carries the load for the Rams, 16 carries for 88 yds a game at 5.4 a carry, with his best work to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Giants hand it to Cam Skattebo early and often, 12 carries for 33 yds a game at 2.7 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -21.8
Market lineLA -8.5
Sim total47
Market total47.5
LA by 21.8 (98% to win) Projected total 47 pts Matthew Stafford ~287 pass yds (250+ 72%) Kyren Williams ~88 rush yds (70+ 74%) Puka Nacua ~104 rec yds, 7.5 rec (70+ 76%)