NYG @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
NYG Giants
13
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYG18%13
PHI82%25
25
PHI Eagles
BET VALUE
Lean PHI -5.5 +6.7 pts
MARKET PHI -5.5 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

NYG
PHI
18% Win Probability 82%
252 Total Yards 389
164 Passing Yards 247
88 Rushing Yards 142
2.2 Sacks 3.1
1.0 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

NYG
PASS Jaxson Dart187 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo42 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.1 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Darius Slayton2.6 rec, 34 yds
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts246 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley66 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Makai Lemon4.9 rec, 73 yds, 0.5 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.7 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD

Eagles by 12.2

The sim sides with Eagles: a 12.2-point edge and a 82% win rate over 50 runs (25-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Darius Slayton (Giants) vs Cooper DeJean (Eagles) - winner: Cooper DeJean, holding him to 11 yds on just 36% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Ar'Darius Washington (Giants) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 4.8 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Jalen Carter (Eagles) vs John Michael Schmitz Jr. (Giants) - winner: Jalen Carter, winning 56% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 4.9 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Lane Johnson (Eagles) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 55% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 3.4 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Makai Lemon (Eagles) vs Deonte Banks (Giants) - winner: Makai Lemon, open on 64% of routes for 5.8/7.0, 59 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Eagles may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.6 sacks a game (Jonathan Greenard (2.4 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Eagles' line should hold up: the Giants win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.7 sacks and 24.5 pressures a game — Brian Burns (2.3 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Eagles to feed Makai Lemon: 5.8 catches for 59 yds a game, open 64% of the time.
  • Malik Nabers should find soft spots all day, open 42% of the time for 41 yds a game.
  • Cooper DeJean (Eagles) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 33% of his coverage snaps with 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Saquon Barkley: 66 yds a game at 4.8 a carry for the Eagles, finding room to the right side.
  • Cam Skattebo sets the tempo for the Giants — 42 yds a game on the ground at 3.3 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -12.2
Market linePHI -5.5
Sim total38
Market total44.5
PHI by 12.2 (82% to win) Projected total 38 pts Jalen Hurts ~246 pass yds (250+ 42%) Saquon Barkley ~66 rush yds (70+ 36%) Makai Lemon ~73 rec yds, 4.9 rec (70+ 42%)