NYJ @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
NYJ Jets
23
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYJ70%23
ARZ30%16
16
ARZ Cardinals
BET VALUE
MARKET NYJ -1.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
ARZ
70% Win Probability 30%
347 Total Yards 299
216 Passing Yards 220
131 Rushing Yards 79
3.9 Sacks 2.1
1.5 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith218 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Breece Hall95 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.9 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell2.6 rec, 34 yds, 0.1 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett247 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love53 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Michael Wilson5.4 rec, 71 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.4.8 rec, 69 yds, 0.2 TD

Jets by 6.9

Run it 50 times and Jets win 70% of them, by 6.9 on average (23-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Budda Baker (Cardinals) - winner: Breece Hall, 5.8 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 6.7 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
In the Trenches
  • The Jets get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (7.0 sacks a game), David Bailey (3.7 sacks, 9.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Cardinals — a 50% win rate, 3.8 sacks and 15.9 pressures a game, and Josh Sweat (2.4 sacks, 6.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Garrett Wilson should find soft spots all day, open 52% of the time for 50 yds a game.
  • Michael Wilson headlines the Cardinals' receiving corps — 5.7 catches for 52 yds a game on 54% separation.
On the Ground
  • Breece Hall carries the load for the Jets, 16 carries for 95 yds a game at 5.8 a carry, finding room to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Jeremiyah Love is the workhorse for the Cardinals, churning 53 yds a game at 6.7 a carry, finding room to the right side and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNYJ -6.9
Market lineNYJ -1.5
Sim total39
Market total41.5
NYJ by 6.9 (70% to win) Projected total 39 pts Jacoby Brissett ~247 pass yds (250+ 48%) Breece Hall ~95 rush yds (70+ 68%) Garrett Wilson ~76 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 52%)