NYJ @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NYJ Jets
23
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NYJ70%23
ARZ30%17
17
ARZ Cardinals

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
ARZ
70% Win Probability 30%
339 Total Yards 291
224 Passing Yards 248
115 Rushing Yards 43
1.7 Sacks 2.9
1.1 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith238 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Breece Hall69 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Garrett Wilson6.1 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell2.9 rec, 41 yds, 0.1 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett260 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love13 rush yds
REC Michael Wilson7.8 rec, 98 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Trey McBride4.5 rec, 49 yds, 0.4 TD

Jets by 5.7

Run it 50 times and Jets win 70% of them, by 5.7 on average (23-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Jets) - winner: Jarvis Brownlee Jr., holding him to 1.5 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Jack Gibbens (Cardinals) - winner: Breece Hall, 4.8 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Jets get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (3.9 sacks a game), Kingsley Enagbare (0.8 sacks, 6.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Cardinals — a 49% win rate, 5.6 sacks and 22.3 pressures a game, and Josh Sweat (3.0 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Garrett Wilson should find soft spots all day, open 57% of the time for 56 yds a game.
  • Michael Wilson headlines the Cardinals' receiving corps — 10.3 catches for 78 yds a game on 51% separation.
  • On the back end, Azareye'h Thomas (Jets) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 44% of routes — and 0.5 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Breece Hall sets the tempo for the Jets — 69 yds a game on the ground at 4.8 a carry, finding room off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • On the ground, the Cardinals ride Jeremiyah Love: 8 carries, 13 yds a game (1.5 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

NYJ by 5.7 (70% to win) Projected total 40 pts Jacoby Brissett ~260 pass yds (250+ 50%) Breece Hall ~69 rush yds (70+ 46%) Michael Wilson ~98 rec yds, 7.8 rec (70+ 72%)