NYJ @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
NYJ Jets
29
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYJ68%29
BUF32%21
21
BUF Bills
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take NYJ +10 +17.7 pts
MARKET BUF -10 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
BUF
68% Win Probability 32%
373 Total Yards 329
225 Passing Yards 205
147 Rushing Yards 124
3.4 Sacks 2.1
1.4 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith233 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Breece Hall105 rush yds, 1.4 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.3 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Omar Cooper Jr.2.8 rec, 39 yds, 0.2 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen231 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH James Cook60 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC DJ Moore5.8 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid3.3 rec, 43 yds, 0.4 TD

Jets by 7.7

Run it 50 times and Jets win 68% of them, by 7.7 on average (29-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Breece Hall, 7.6 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • T'Vondre Sweat (Jets) vs Alec Anderson (Bills) - winner: T'Vondre Sweat, winning 56% of reps for 0.4 sacks and 5.6 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Deone Walker (Bills) vs Dylan Parham (Jets) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 56% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 1.5 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Jets — a 51% win rate yields only 6.3 sacks and 29.1 pressures a game, David Bailey (3.1 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Bills get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (3.8 sacks a game), Greg Rousseau (1.5 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Garrett Wilson is the go-to for the Jets, separating on 58% of routes for 46 yds a game.
  • DJ Moore should find soft spots all day, open 46% of the time for 62 yds a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jets' run game leans on Breece Hall — 14 carries, 105 yds a game (7.6 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • The Bills lean on James Cook, 15 carries for 60 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNYJ -7.7
Market lineBUF -10
Sim total50
Market total43.5
NYJ by 7.7 (68% to win) Projected total 50 pts Geno Smith ~233 pass yds (250+ 32%) Breece Hall ~105 rush yds (70+ 74%) DJ Moore ~74 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 52%)