NYJ @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NYJ Jets
22
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NYJ70%22
BUF30%19
19
BUF Bills

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
BUF
70% Win Probability 30%
338 Total Yards 284
228 Passing Yards 173
110 Rushing Yards 111
2.5 Sacks 2.6
1.1 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith240 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Breece Hall66 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.3 rec, 70 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Kenyon Sadiq3.8 rec, 43 yds, 0.5 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen186 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH James Cook52 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC DJ Moore4.7 rec, 65 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Khalil Shakir2.5 rec, 29 yds, 0.1 TD

Jets by 4.0

The sim sides with Jets: a 4.0-point edge and a 70% win rate over 50 runs (22-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Garrett Wilson (Jets) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Garrett Wilson, open on 66% of routes for 6.3/8.7, 58 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Bills' quarterback should have time; the Jets win just 51% of reps for 4.9 sacks a game, Kingsley Enagbare (1.9 sacks, 6.0 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Jets' quarterback should have time; the Bills win just 50% of reps for 4.5 sacks a game, led by Bradley Chubb (1.2 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Garrett Wilson's show for the Jets: 58 yds a game, open on 66% of routes.
  • Look for DJ Moore to eat: 6.3 catches and 56 yds a game for the Bills.
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 43% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Breece Hall: 66 yds a game at 4.4 a carry for the Jets, doing his damage to the right side.
  • The Bills' run game leans on James Cook — 13 carries, 52 yds a game (4.1 a carry), with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

NYJ by 4.0 (70% to win) Projected total 41 pts Geno Smith ~240 pass yds (250+ 48%) Breece Hall ~66 rush yds (70+ 38%) Garrett Wilson ~70 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 46%)