NYJ @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NYJ Jets
17
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYJ34%17
CHI66%21
21
CHI Bears
BET VALUE
MARKET CHI -8.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
CHI
34% Win Probability 66%
301 Total Yards 314
183 Passing Yards 211
118 Rushing Yards 103
2.9 Sacks 2.1
2.1 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith197 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Breece Hall78 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.9 rec, 62 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Kenyon Sadiq3.0 rec, 29 yds, 0.1 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams223 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift48 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.0 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.4 rec, 41 yds, 0.2 TD

Bears by 4.3

Across 50 simulations, Bears come out on top 66% of the time by an average of 4.3 (21-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Dillon Thieneman (Bears) - winner: Breece Hall, 4.7 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
In the Trenches
  • The Jets' quarterback should have time; the Bears win just 50% of reps for 4.1 sacks a game, with Montez Sweat (1.4 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Jets get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.7 sacks a game), David Bailey (3.1 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Look for Rome Odunze to eat: 6.2 catches and 56 yds a game for the Bears.
  • Expect the Jets to feed Garrett Wilson: 5.8 catches for 41 yds a game, open 50% of the time.
  • Devin Bush (Bears) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 39% of routes, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of D'Andre Swift: 48 yds a game at 3.7 a carry for the Bears, finding room off the right edge.
  • On the ground, the Jets ride Breece Hall: 17 carries, 78 yds a game (4.7 a carry), with his best work to the right side and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCHI -4.3
Market lineCHI -8.5
Sim total38
Market total45.5
CHI by 4.3 (66% to win) Projected total 38 pts Caleb Williams ~223 pass yds (250+ 38%) Breece Hall ~78 rush yds (70+ 56%) Rome Odunze ~77 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 54%)