NYJ @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NYJ Jets
14
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYJ20%14
DET80%23
23
DET Lions
BET VALUE
MARKET DET -9.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
DET
20% Win Probability 80%
265 Total Yards 351
180 Passing Yards 251
85 Rushing Yards 100
1.3 Sacks 2.2
1.8 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith196 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Breece Hall58 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.7 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Omar Cooper Jr.2.6 rec, 30 yds, 0.1 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff243 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs69 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown5.9 rec, 68 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.2 rec, 61 yds, 0.4 TD

Lions by 9.4

The sim sides with Lions: a 9.4-point edge and a 80% win rate over 50 runs (23-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Jets) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 56% of reps for 3.3 sacks and 7.2 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.2 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Jets) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 64% of routes for 7.9/9.4, 63 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Lions get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.3 sacks a game), Aidan Hutchinson (3.3 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Lions' quarterback should have time; the Jets win just 51% of reps for 2.7 sacks a game, David Bailey (2.3 sacks, 2.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown headlines the Lions' receiving corps — 7.9 catches for 63 yds a game on 64% separation.
  • The Jets will live and die with Garrett Wilson, who comes open 53% of the time (37 yds a game).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Brian Branch (Lions): 37% separation allowed, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Lions hand it to Jahmyr Gibbs early and often, 13 carries for 69 yds a game at 5.2 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Expect a steady diet of Breece Hall: 58 yds a game at 4.1 a carry for the Jets, doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -9.4
Market lineDET -9.5
Sim total37
Market total45.5
DET by 9.4 (80% to win) Projected total 37 pts Jared Goff ~243 pass yds (250+ 42%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~69 rush yds (70+ 44%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~68 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 42%)