NYJ @ KC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
NYJ Jets
19
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYJ40%19
KC60%21
21
KC Chiefs
BET VALUE
Lean NYJ +9.5 +7.8 pts
MARKET KC -9.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
KC
40% Win Probability 60%
292 Total Yards 322
174 Passing Yards 212
118 Rushing Yards 110
3.4 Sacks 2.1
1.7 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith187 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Breece Hall83 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Garrett Wilson4.9 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell2.7 rec, 33 yds, 0.1 TD
KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes233 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III57 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Rashee Rice6.7 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.7 rec, 47 yds, 0.4 TD

Chiefs by 1.7

The model leans Chiefs by 1.7, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 21-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Breece Hall, 5.6 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 4.9 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Adonai Mitchell (Jets) vs Kader Kohou (Chiefs) - winner: Kader Kohou, holding him to 16 yds on just 39% open, 0.3 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
In the Trenches
  • The Jets' quarterback should have time; the Chiefs win just 50% of reps for 4.1 sacks a game, led by George Karlaftis (1.7 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game).
  • The Jets get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (6.9 sacks a game), David Bailey (3.6 sacks, 10.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Rashee Rice's show for the Chiefs: 64 yds a game, open on 56% of routes.
  • Garrett Wilson headlines the Jets' receiving corps — 4.5 catches for 32 yds a game on 45% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Alohi Gilman (Chiefs): 37% separation allowed — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Kenneth Walker III sets the tempo for the Chiefs — 57 yds a game on the ground at 4.9 a carry, with his best work to the right side and moving the chains.
  • The Jets hand it to Breece Hall early and often, 15 carries for 83 yds a game at 5.6 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineKC -1.7
Market lineKC -9.5
Sim total40
Market total41.5
KC by 1.7 (60% to win) Projected total 40 pts Patrick Mahomes ~233 pass yds (250+ 40%) Breece Hall ~83 rush yds (70+ 52%) Rashee Rice ~80 rec yds, 6.7 rec (70+ 66%)