NYJ @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
NYJ Jets
19
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYJ38%19
LAC62%21
21
LAC Chargers
BET VALUE
Lean NYJ +9.5 +7.5 pts
MARKET LAC -9.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
LAC
38% Win Probability 62%
310 Total Yards 307
209 Passing Yards 206
101 Rushing Yards 101
2.4 Sacks 2.1
1.5 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith223 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Breece Hall67 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Garrett Wilson6.1 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Omar Cooper Jr.2.7 rec, 32 yds
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert215 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton48 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.2 rec, 65 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Quentin Johnston3.7 rec, 52 yds, 0.4 TD

Chargers by 2.0

Run it 50 times and Chargers win 62% of them, by 2.0 on average (21-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Demario Davis (Jets) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 4.9 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Chargers — a 50% win rate yields only 3.7 sacks and 17.1 pressures a game, with Tuli Tuipulotu (2.5 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Jets — a 50% win rate yields only 4.9 sacks and 27.0 pressures a game, led by David Bailey (2.4 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Chargers' aerial attack runs through Ladd McConkey (52 yds a game, open on 52% of routes).
  • Expect the Jets to feed Garrett Wilson: 6.2 catches for 46 yds a game, open 51% of the time.
  • Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 39% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Omarion Hampton carries the load for the Chargers, 10 carries for 48 yds a game at 4.9 a carry, churning to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Jets lean on Breece Hall, 15 carries for 67 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLAC -2.0
Market lineLAC -9.5
Sim total39
Market total41.5
LAC by 2.0 (62% to win) Projected total 39 pts Geno Smith ~223 pass yds (250+ 28%) Breece Hall ~67 rush yds (70+ 38%) Garrett Wilson ~71 rec yds, 6.1 rec (70+ 44%)