NYJ @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
NYJ Jets
17
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NYJ62%17
LAC38%11
11
LAC Chargers

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
LAC
62% Win Probability 38%
278 Total Yards 246
194 Passing Yards 177
84 Rushing Yards 69
3.1 Sacks 2.9
1.2 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith210 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Breece Hall52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.5 rec, 72 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell3.1 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert199 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton27 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ladd McConkey3.9 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tre Harris3.9 rec, 48 yds, 0.3 TD

Jets by 5.8

Run it 50 times and Jets win 62% of them, by 5.8 on average (17-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Jets) - winner: Jarvis Brownlee Jr., holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Jowon Briggs (Jets) vs Cole Strange (Chargers) - winner: Jowon Briggs, winning 56% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 5.9 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Jets — a 51% win rate yields only 6.0 sacks and 31.3 pressures a game, with Kingsley Enagbare (1.9 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Jets' line should hold up: the Chargers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.4 sacks and 25.4 pressures a game (Tuli Tuipulotu (3.4 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Garrett Wilson headlines the Jets' receiving corps — 6.0 catches for 52 yds a game on 55% separation.
  • Ladd McConkey is the engine of the Chargers' passing game — 36 yds a game on 52% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets): 41% separation allowed — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jets lean on Breece Hall, 15 carries for 52 yds a game at 3.5 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.
  • The Chargers hand it to Omarion Hampton early and often, 11 carries for 27 yds a game at 2.4 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

NYJ by 5.8 (62% to win) Projected total 29 pts Geno Smith ~210 pass yds (250+ 16%) Breece Hall ~52 rush yds (70+ 16%) Garrett Wilson ~72 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 52%)