NYJ @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
NYJ Jets
19
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYJ48%19
MIA52%19
19
MIA Dolphins
BET VALUE
MARKET MIA -1.5 · O/U 40.5

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
MIA
48% Win Probability 52%
311 Total Yards 279
201 Passing Yards 179
110 Rushing Yards 100
3.0 Sacks 1.7
1.3 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith208 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Breece Hall71 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.2 rec, 67 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Omar Cooper Jr.2.7 rec, 34 yds, 0.1 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis196 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane71 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Malik Washington4.3 rec, 48 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jalen Tolbert2.8 rec, 35 yds, 0.2 TD

Dolphins by 0.3

The sim sides with Dolphins: a 0.3-point edge and a 52% win rate over 50 runs (19-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) - winner: De'Von Achane, 5.6 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: Breece Hall, 5.0 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • David Onyemata (Jets) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: David Onyemata, winning 58% of reps for 0.5 sacks and 7.0 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Dolphins — a 49% win rate yields only 3.3 sacks and 13.3 pressures a game, led by Joshua Uche (1.9 sacks, 4.1 pressures a game).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Jets — a 51% win rate yields only 5.4 sacks and 28.5 pressures a game, with David Bailey (2.5 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Malik Washington headlines the Dolphins' receiving corps — 3.9 catches for 32 yds a game on 42% separation.
  • The Jets will live and die with Garrett Wilson, who comes open 51% of the time (44 yds a game).
  • Chris Johnson (Dolphins) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 39% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • De'Von Achane sets the tempo for the Dolphins — 71 yds a game on the ground at 5.6 a carry, with his best work to the right side and moving the chains.
  • The Jets hand it to Breece Hall early and often, 14 carries for 71 yds a game at 5.0 a carry, finding room off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineMIA -0.3
Market lineMIA -1.5
Sim total37
Market total40.5
MIA by 0.3 (52% to win) Projected total 37 pts Geno Smith ~208 pass yds (250+ 20%) De'Von Achane ~71 rush yds (70+ 40%) Garrett Wilson ~67 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 38%)