NYJ @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NYJ Jets
22
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NYJ92%22
MIA8%11
11
MIA Dolphins

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
MIA
92% Win Probability 8%
328 Total Yards 223
210 Passing Yards 155
118 Rushing Yards 68
2.4 Sacks 3.1
1.0 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith218 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Breece Hall69 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.9 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell2.8 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis173 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II39 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Malik Washington4.0 rec, 47 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Caleb Douglas3.2 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD

Jets by 10.3

Jets are the pick here, favoured by 10.3 and winning 92% of 50 sims (projected 22-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jowon Briggs (Jets) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Jowon Briggs, winning 58% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 5.2 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Willie Gay (Dolphins) - winner: Breece Hall, 4.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Garrett Wilson (Jets) vs JuJu Brents (Dolphins) - winner: Garrett Wilson, open on 61% of routes for 6.4/9.0, 61 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • The Dolphins' line should hold up: the Jets win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.7 sacks and 26.2 pressures a game (Kingsley Enagbare (1.4 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Dolphins — a 50% win rate yields only 5.5 sacks and 22.7 pressures a game, led by Joshua Uche (2.9 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Garrett Wilson is the go-to for the Jets, separating on 61% of routes for 61 yds a game.
  • The Dolphins lean on Malik Washington, good for 4.5 catches and 33 yds a game while breaking open on 49% of his routes.
  • Azareye'h Thomas (Jets) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 44% of routes, good for 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Breece Hall is the workhorse for the Jets, churning 69 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • Expect a steady diet of Ollie Gordon II: 39 yds a game at 3.3 a carry for the Dolphins.

Model vs Market

NYJ by 10.3 (92% to win) Projected total 33 pts Geno Smith ~218 pass yds (250+ 26%) Breece Hall ~69 rush yds (70+ 42%) Garrett Wilson ~77 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 56%)