NYJ @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 6 slate
NYJ Jets
16
PROJECTION
NYJ 19 – NE 26
Week 6 50-sim average Sun 18 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
NYJ38%16 19
NE62%20 26
20
NE Patriots
✓ RESULT NE by 7 model NE by 3.9, off by 3.1
• SPREAD NYJ +7 PUSH line at publish NE -7
✗ TOTAL 45 pts OVER O/U 43.5, model 36 lean under

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
NE
38% Win Probability 62%
273 Total Yards 300
167 Passing Yards 209
105 Rushing Yards 91
2.4 Sacks 3.1
1.5 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith186 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Breece Hall59 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.3 rec, 59 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell3.2 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye220 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson38 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Romeo Doubs4.2 rec, 64 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Efton Chism III3.3 rec, 43 yds, 0.3 TD

Patriots by 3.9

The sim sides with Patriots: a 3.9-point edge and a 62% win rate over 50 runs (20-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Adonai Mitchell (Jets) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 17 yds on just 39% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Jowon Briggs (Jets) vs Ben Brown (Patriots) - winner: Jowon Briggs, winning 58% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 4.8 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Patriots — a 50% win rate, 5.9 sacks and 29.0 pressures a game, and Dre'Mont Jones (2.0 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Jets — a 51% win rate, 5.4 sacks and 27.1 pressures a game, and Kingsley Enagbare (2.0 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Romeo Doubs is the engine of the Patriots' passing game — 51 yds a game on 50% separation.
  • The Jets will live and die with Garrett Wilson, who comes open 48% of the time (38 yds a game).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Carlton Davis III (Patriots): 38% separation allowed, adding 0.5 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Patriots hand it to Rhamondre Stevenson early and often, 11 carries for 38 yds a game at 3.4 a carry.
  • Expect a steady diet of Breece Hall: 59 yds a game at 3.9 a carry for the Jets, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNE -3.9
Market lineNE -7
Sim total36
Market total43.5
NE by 3.9 (62% to win) Projected total 36 pts Drake Maye ~220 pass yds (250+ 30%) Breece Hall ~59 rush yds (70+ 24%) Romeo Doubs ~64 rec yds, 4.2 rec (70+ 30%)