NYJ @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NYJ Jets
19
PROJECTION
Week 6 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYJ36%19
NE64%23
23
NE Patriots
BET VALUE
MARKET NE -9.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
NE
36% Win Probability 64%
293 Total Yards 329
183 Passing Yards 217
110 Rushing Yards 112
3.3 Sacks 2.5
1.9 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith196 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Breece Hall70 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Garrett Wilson6.0 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Omar Cooper Jr.2.5 rec, 27 yds, 0.1 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye230 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson53 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC A.J. Brown5.3 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.5 rec, 51 yds, 0.2 TD

Patriots by 4.1

Across 50 simulations, Patriots come out on top 64% of the time by an average of 4.1 (23-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Adonai Mitchell (Jets) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 12 yds on just 37% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Joe Tippmann (Jets) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 56% of reps for 1.8 sacks and 2.6 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Patriots — a 51% win rate, 4.7 sacks and 22.1 pressures a game, and Dre'Mont Jones (1.5 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Jets — a 50% win rate, 6.9 sacks and 27.9 pressures a game, and David Bailey (3.8 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • A.J. Brown is the engine of the Patriots' passing game — 65 yds a game on 55% separation.
  • The Jets will live and die with Garrett Wilson, who comes open 40% of the time (38 yds a game).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Christian Gonzalez (Patriots): 37% separation allowed, adding 1.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Patriots' run game leans on Rhamondre Stevenson — 12 carries, 53 yds a game (4.6 a carry), doing his damage off the right edge.
  • On the ground, the Jets ride Breece Hall: 16 carries, 70 yds a game (4.3 a carry), churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNE -4.1
Market lineNE -9.5
Sim total42
Market total42.5
NE by 4.1 (64% to win) Projected total 42 pts Drake Maye ~230 pass yds (250+ 32%) Breece Hall ~70 rush yds (70+ 48%) A.J. Brown ~80 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 52%)