NYJ @ TEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NYJ Jets
24
PROJECTION
Week 1 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
NYJ76%24
TEN24%15
15
TEN Titans
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take NYJ +2.5 +11.5 pts
MARKET TEN -2.5 · O/U 38.5

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
TEN
76% Win Probability 24%
341 Total Yards 252
186 Passing Yards 186
155 Rushing Yards 66
3.6 Sacks 1.8
1.5 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith185 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Breece Hall105 rush yds, 1.3 TD
REC Garrett Wilson4.7 rec, 57 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Omar Cooper Jr.2.6 rec, 32 yds, 0.1 TD
TEN
PASS Cam Ward211 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard32 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.2 rec, 54 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.4 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD

Jets by 9.0

The model leans Jets by 9.0, winning 76% of 50 sims (projected 24-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: Breece Hall, 6.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Josh Myers (Jets) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 57% of reps for 1.7 sacks and 2.6 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Jets get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (6.7 sacks a game), led by David Bailey (3.2 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game).
  • The Jets' line should hold up: the Titans win just 49% of their reps, mustering 3.4 sacks and 15.8 pressures a game — John Franklin-Myers (0.8 sacks, 5.0 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Look for Garrett Wilson to eat: 4.0 catches and 33 yds a game for the Jets.
  • Carnell Tate is the engine of the Titans' passing game — 43 yds a game on 59% separation.
  • Tony Adams (Titans) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 42% of his coverage snaps with 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Breece Hall carries the load for the Jets, 15 carries for 105 yds a game at 6.9 a carry, finding room off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Titans' run game leans on Tony Pollard — 9 carries, 32 yds a game (3.4 a carry), with the holes opening off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNYJ -9.0
Market lineTEN -2.5
Sim total38
Market total38.5
NYJ by 9.0 (76% to win) Projected total 38 pts Cam Ward ~211 pass yds (250+ 20%) Breece Hall ~105 rush yds (70+ 68%) Garrett Wilson ~57 rec yds, 4.7 rec (70+ 32%)