PHI @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
PHI Eagles
27
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PHI66%27
ARZ34%19
19
ARZ Cardinals
BET VALUE
MARKET PHI -8.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

PHI
ARZ
66% Win Probability 34%
393 Total Yards 281
254 Passing Yards 172
139 Rushing Yards 109
4.3 Sacks 3.3
1.2 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts256 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley63 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC DeVonta Smith5.2 rec, 76 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Makai Lemon5.3 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett200 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love78 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.0 rec, 57 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Michael Wilson3.8 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD

Eagles by 8.2

The model leans Eagles by 8.2, winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 27-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 10.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 32 yds on just 38% open, 1.0 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs Denzel Burke (Cardinals) - winner: DeVonta Smith, open on 59% of routes for 6.1/8.4, 63 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Eagles get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (8.4 sacks a game), with Jonathan Greenard (3.6 sacks, 9.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Cardinals — a 49% win rate, 6.7 sacks and 25.8 pressures a game, and Josh Sweat (3.6 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • DeVonta Smith is the go-to for the Eagles, separating on 59% of routes for 63 yds a game.
  • The Cardinals will live and die with Marvin Harrison Jr., who comes open 38% of the time (32 yds a game).
  • In coverage, Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) travels and erases — only 34% separation allowed, good for 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Saquon Barkley is the workhorse for the Eagles, churning 63 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, churning to the right side.
  • Jeremiyah Love carries the load for the Cardinals, 7 carries for 78 yds a game at 10.7 a carry, finding room off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -8.2
Market linePHI -8.5
Sim total46
Market total43.5
PHI by 8.2 (66% to win) Projected total 46 pts Jalen Hurts ~256 pass yds (250+ 56%) Jeremiyah Love ~78 rush yds (70+ 40%) DeVonta Smith ~76 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 64%)