PHI @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
PHI Eagles
22
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
PHI64%22
ARZ36%17
17
ARZ Cardinals

Projected Team Stats

PHI
ARZ
64% Win Probability 36%
335 Total Yards 285
228 Passing Yards 232
106 Rushing Yards 53
2.6 Sacks 2.7
1.2 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts236 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.6 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dontayvion Wicks3.5 rec, 49 yds, 0.2 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett248 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love18 rush yds
REC Michael Wilson7.3 rec, 82 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Trey McBride4.2 rec, 45 yds, 0.3 TD

Eagles by 4.9

The model leans Eagles by 4.9, winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 22-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Tariq Woolen (Eagles) - winner: Tariq Woolen, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Jack Gibbens (Cardinals) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • The Eagles get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (5.3 sacks a game), led by Jonathan Greenard (3.7 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game).
  • The Eagles' line should hold up: the Cardinals win just 49% of their reps, mustering 6.0 sacks and 28.3 pressures a game, and Josh Sweat (2.9 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is DeVonta Smith's show for the Eagles: 49 yds a game, open on 55% of routes.
  • Through the air it is Michael Wilson's show for the Cardinals: 68 yds a game, open on 45% of routes.
  • In coverage, Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) travels and erases — only 35% separation allowed, adding 0.8 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Saquon Barkley sets the tempo for the Eagles — 56 yds a game on the ground at 4.8 a carry, doing his damage to the right side and moving the chains.
  • On the ground, the Cardinals ride Jeremiyah Love: 9 carries, 18 yds a game (2.2 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

PHI by 4.9 (64% to win) Projected total 39 pts Jacoby Brissett ~248 pass yds (250+ 50%) Saquon Barkley ~56 rush yds (70+ 30%) Michael Wilson ~82 rec yds, 7.3 rec (70+ 68%)